COVID-19 Vaccine Misinformation and Disinformation Costs an Estimated $50 to $300 Million Each Day
We calculate that total voluntary COVID-19 nonvaccination has caused at least $1 billion of harm each day in the United States since vaccines became widely available. This estimate is based on the costs of hospitalizations and the valuation of lives lost and long-term morbidity due to COVID-19 calculated using the standard methodology for US Department of Health and Human Services regulatory impact analysis.(5) Our conservative estimate, which does not take into account lower transmission in the future,(6) reflects relatively low levels of disease transmission during June and July 2021. Harms from nonvaccination and associated costs of misinformation were much higher during the Delta surge. Even after the surge in US cases caused by the Delta variant subsides, this level of harm (estimated at 300 deaths, 1,200 hospitalizations, and 20,000 cases per day or more) will continue for at least several months. While most of this measured harm is the monetized value of mortality and morbidity, about $60 million of the $1 billion per day total is monetary or financial harm (costs to the healthcare system and economic losses from individuals missing work). These estimates and sources are described in our worksheet.(7)
With a total nonvaccination harm of $1 billion per day and misinformation and disinformation causing between 5% and 30% of this harm, misinformation and disinformation have caused between $50 and $300 million worth of total harm every day since May 2021, when the vaccines were freely available to most US adults—underscoring that the costs during the Delta variant surge were much higher. Misinformation and disinformation will likely continue to do this level of harm if they continue to flourish.
It is possible that anti-COVID-19-vaccine beliefs and decisions driven by misinformation and disinformation have solidified and are unlikely to change as a result of public health efforts. However, not everyone’s beliefs are fully solidified, which means that reducing the amount of misinformation and disinformation circulating in the future may reduce the levels of voluntary nonvaccination.8
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A public health effort that reduced or effectively countered misinformation and disinformation and was able to reduce related nonvaccination by 10% would be worth between $5 and $30 million per day, or between $150 and $900 million per month, while the pandemic continues.
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Continued analysis of the economic burden of misinformation and disinformation should be undertaken to further refine the estimated costs and ensure that these costs do not remain invisible to public health and political leadership. We will update our preliminary estimates as new data become available.
References
1. Nather D. Axios-Ipsos poll: the misinformed are less likely to get vaccinated. Axios. Published April 1, 2021. Accessed October 14, 2021. https://www.axios.com/axios-ipsos-poll-covid-misinformationvaccination-rates-0849c642-9999-4568-9769-c1891c5e5291.html
2. Loobma S, de Figueiredo A, Piatek SJ, de Greef K, Larson HJ. Measuring the impact of COVID-19 vaccine misinformation on vaccination intent in the UK and USA. Nat Hum Behav. 2021;5:337-348.
3. US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. COVID-19 vaccinations in the United States. Data as for October 13, 2021. Accessed October 14, 2021. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-datatracker/#vaccinations_vacc-total-admin-rate-total
4. Sparks G, Kirzinger A, Brodie M. KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor: profile of the unvaccinated. KFF. Published June 11, 2021. Accessed October 14, 2021. https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/pollfinding/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-profile-of-the-unvaccinated/
5. Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation. Guidelines for Regulatory Impact Analysis. Washington, DC: US Department of Health and Human Services; 2016. Accessed October 14, 2021. https://aspe.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/migrated_legacy_files//171981/HHS_RIAGuidance.pdf
6. Bartsch SM, Wedlock PT, O’Shea KJ, et al. Lives and costs saved by expanding and expediting coronavirus disease 2019 vaccination. J Infect Dis. 2021;224(6):938-948.
7. Bruns R, Hosangadi D, Trotochaud M, Sell TK. Cost of COVID-19 misinformation. Accessed October 14, 2021. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Bw_wdd6d4hjsv4hifthEhW6- AaRlpp3aPHFCbR5MsC0/edit#gid=0
8. Freeman D, Loe BS, Yu L-M, et al. Effects of different types of written vaccination information on COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in the UK (OCEANS-II): a single-blind, parallel-group, randomized controlled trial. Lancet Public Health. 2021:6(6):e416-e427.
Richard Bruns is a Senior Scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and an Assistant Scientist in the Department of Environmental Health and Engineering at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Divya Hosangadi is a Senior Analyst and Research Associate at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. Marc Trotochaud is a Health Communication Specialist. Tara Kirk Sell is Senior Scholar, Associate Professor at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. This brief was originally published on the website of the Johns Hopkins University.
