DEMOCRACY WATCHImmigration Polarizes the Right, and Climate Change Polarizes the Left: Study

Published 7 August 2023

Older people, people with a high degree of educational attainment and income, and residents of large cities have the strongest negative feelings toward people who think differently. On average, those who identify themselves as left-leaning are more polarized than those who identify themselves as right-leaning.

When people express emotional aversion to those who hold opposing views on major socio-political issues, this can be described as affective polarization. The Mercator Forum Migration and Democracy (MIDEM) at TU Dresden examined affective polarization in Europe in relation to specific issues from an empirical and comparative perspective. The analysis of a representative survey conducted in ten European countries shows that affective polarization is at its greatest when it comes to “climate change” and “immigration.” Generally, people on the political left are more polarized than those on the right. Those on the political right, however, show more affective polarization on the issue of immigration.

Italy Has the Highest Level of Affective Polarization
In Europe, the amount of polarization varies from country to country. In general, Italy exhibits the greatest degree of affective polarization, ahead of Greece and Hungary. In contract, those surveyed in the Netherlands and Czechia are the least polarized. Germany lies in the middle of the rankings, along with Hungary and Spain.

Climate Change and Immigration Are the Most Polarizing Issues
Emotional aversion is at its strongest between people who hold differing views on the issues of “climate change” and “immigration.” “When it comes to ‘immigration,’ those who want to restrict the number of foreigners entering the country are the most polarized; for ‘climate change,’ it’s those who believe policies to combat the problem don’t go far enough. While climate change polarizes left-wing and green parties voters, aversion to people with different opinions from their own is dominant among those who vote for right-wing and far-right political parties,” explains MIDEM Director Prof. Hans Vorländer. In comparison, the topics of “gender equality” and “pandemics such as COVID-19” result in relatively low levels of social conflict. Affective polarization is lowest for the topic of “social benefits and their financing.”

Protecting Sexual Minorities Polarizes Southern Europe, War in Ukraine Polarizes Czechia
The topic of “policy towards sexual minorities” is particularly polarizing in Italy, Spain and Greece. What’s striking is that women are more polarized on this issue than men.

The war in Ukraine polarizes Czechia the most. Many Czechs are very critical of their government and its policies in support of Ukraine.