WORLD ROUNDUP: HAMAS ATTACKS This Will Be a Pyrrhic Victory for Hamas | Israel Could Win This Gaza Battle and Lose the War | There Are No Rules, and more
· What You Need to Know About the Israel-Hamas War
The situation is chaotic, and the fighting is ongoing. But several observations already stand out
· Israel Could Win This Gaza Battle and Lose the War
An all-out effort is again underway to maintain an unsustainable regional status quo
· There Are No Rules
States and quasi-states are using extreme, uninhibited violence against civilian populations
· Hamas Attack Is an Intelligence Failure That May Take Israel Years to Unravel
True intelligence failures result not simply from a lack of information but also an inability to understand it
· Is Israel at War with Iran?
Tehran is exploiting a conflict left to fester for too long
· What Is Iran’s Role in the Hamas Attack on Israel?
Tehran has been encouraging an escalation like this for months
· This Will Be a Pyrrhic Victory for Hamas
Israel could go much further than it has in the past in responding to the group’s attacks
· Israel’s Failure to Stop the Hamas Attack Shows the Danger of Too Much Surveillance
Hundreds dead, thousands wounded—Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel shows the limits of even the most advanced and invasive surveillance dragnets as full-scale war erupts
What You Need to Know About the Israel-Hamas War (Daniel Byman, and Alexander Palmer, Foreign Policy)
Initial information suggests that the attack has no precedent in recent Israeli history. The IDF said approximately 2,200 rockets were launched in the initial barrages, making it the largest rocket attack against Israel since Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007. The number of rockets launched was an order of magnitude larger than the attacks at the beginning of the 2014 and 2021 crises. Hamas also appears to have been quite innovative, using paragliders among other means to enter Israel by surprise. The infiltration is particularly devastating for Israel due to the lives lost and the hostages taken.
The attack—with its high number of dead and wounded as well as numerous hostages—also represents a major failure for the Netanyahu government. This is a particular problem in the Israeli political context, as Netanyahu has sold himself as a politician who can lead the fight against terrorism, force the Palestinians to bend to his will, and be tough on security.
The fighting comes at a time when Netanyahu is facing other significant challenges. His efforts to greatly weaken the power of Israel’s Supreme Court led to mass protests, and he himself has been indicted for bribery, fraud, and breach of trust. He has a core of supporters, but he cannot afford damage to his security credentials. In addition, he relies on an extreme right-wing government, with several openly racist ministers who have long called for tougher treatment of the Palestinians, especially when violence occurs.
Israel Could Win This Gaza Battle and Lose the War (Stephen M. Walt, Foreign Policy)
This latest tragedy confirms the bankruptcy of U.S. policy toward the long-standing Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This is not the place for a detailed rehearsal of the ways the United States has mishandled this issue (for excellent accounts, see the books by Galen Jackson, Jerome Slater, Sara Roy, Seth Anziska, and Aaron David Miller), but suffice it to say that U.S. leaders from Richard Nixon to Barack Obama had repeated opportunities to shut this conflict down and failed to do so. (Cont.)
