DEMOCRACY WATCHHow Poland’s Election Results Could Reshape Europe
After nearly a decade in power, Poland’s dominant Law and Justice Party fell short of a new mandate in last Sunday’s election. The outcome underscores that there is nothing inevitable about illiberal populist parties coming to power, even if this threat is not quite gone. And as the case of Viktor Orban’s Hungary shows, once illiberal populists have been in power long enough, it becomes harder to stop the slide towards “competitive” authoritarianism, where the outcome of elections is all but guaranteed.
What are the prospects for the opposition coalition to form a government?
Polish President Andrzej Duda will likely allow the incumbent Law and Justice Party (PiS) government and its current Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki to try and form a new government, as they remain the largest single party in parliament. But they are likely to fall short of a majority. The opposition Civic Coalition, led by former Prime Minister Donald Tusk, would then be in a good position to form a new government, although the opposition could still face challenges.
Tusk will need his own centrist political alliance to find common ground with the left-wing Lewica and center-right Third Way blocs. The glue that binds these three together—their joint aversion to the democratic backsliding under two consecutive PiS-led governments—should prove stronger than what divides them, issues including abortion, social housing, and protection for farmers. So, while President Duda, who ran as an independent but has support from the PiS government, could slow the process down, Poland can probably expect a new Tusk-led government in December 2023.
Do the results shift Warsaw’s stance on relations with the European Union?
As the former president of the European Council, Tusk is deeply pro-European Union (EU). He has promised to reverse many of PiS’s policies on judicial independence, media freedom, and lack of respect for the rule of law. That would be music to the ears of the EU institutions, where many officials are keen on restoring liberal democratic principles in Poland. Tusk thereby hopes to unlock billions of euros in EU funding that was allocated to Poland as part of the COVID-19 pandemic recovery fund, “Next Generation EU,” but that has been frozen due to the ongoing dispute between Brussels and Warsaw.
But delivering on those promises may be harder than meets the eye. Tusk will need to overcome resistance from within Poland’s institutions, which have been under PiS control since 2015, and the pro-PiS President Duda has the constitutional power to veto legislation. An even bigger question is whether Tusk will be able to move the needle on Polish membership of the euro common currency. As long as Poland remains outside of the Eurozone, it cannot hope to play a leading role in shaping the EU’s future.
