IRAN’S NUKESAnalysis of IAEA Iran Verification and Monitoring Report — November 2023
Iran’s stocks of enriched uranium and its centrifuge capacity combined are sufficient to make enough weapon-grade uranium (WGU), taken as 25 kilograms (kg) of WGU, for six nuclear weapons in one month, eight in two months, ten in three months, eleven in four months, and twelve in five months.
This report summarizes and assesses information in the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA’s) quarterly report, dated November 13, 2023, Verification and monitoring in the Islamic Republic of Iran in light of United Nations Security Council resolution 2231 (2015), including Iran’s compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). It also includes findings from a separate IAEA report, NPT Safeguards Agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran, dated November 15, 2023, referred to alternatively as NPT Report or NPT Safeguards Report.
Findings
· Iran’s stocks of enriched uranium and its centrifuge capacity combined are sufficient to make enough weapon-grade uranium (WGU), taken as 25 kilograms (kg) of WGU, for six nuclear weapons in one month, eight in two months, ten in three months, eleven in four months, and twelve in five months. This represents a growth in Iran’s breakout capabilities in months three through five, resulting from the continued growth of enriched uranium stocks. Centrifuge capacity has remained relatively constant.
· With Iran’s growing experience and using only a portion of its stock of 60 percent enriched uranium, Iran could choose to produce its first quantity of 25 kg of WGU in as little as seven days, down from the Institute’s previous estimate of 12 days. The shorter timeframe results from a scenario in which Iran dedicates four advanced centrifuge cascades to the task and uses a higher tails assay, causing faster production of WGU but requiring more 60 percent feed to do so. This breakout could be difficult for the IAEA to detect promptly, if Iran delayed inspectors’ access.
· According to the IAEA’s NPT safeguards report, after almost five years since the IAEA first detected undeclared uranium at the first site relevant to its investigation, and after many chances for Iran to provide explanations, the IAEA continues to conclude that undeclared nuclear-related activities or undeclared nuclear material were present at all four sites under investigation. The IAEA reports, “The Agency has not changed its assessment either of the undeclared nuclear-related activities at the four locations […] or of the origin of the uranium particles […] found at three of these four undeclared locations in Iran.”