IRAN’S NUKESThe Iran Threat Geiger Counter: Reaching Extreme Danger
The Iran Threat Geiger Counter from the Institute for Science and International Security measures on a regular basis Iran’s hostile actions and intentions toward the United States and U.S. allies, and its capability to turn these hostile intentions into action through the potential or actual construction of nuclear weapons. As with the radiation levels measured by a Geiger counter, any level above zero represents a degree of danger. Since May 2023, the date of the last edition of the Counter, the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program has increased dramatically.
A national security threat is typically posed by a combination of hostile intentions and capabilities. The threat from Iran’s nuclear program is no exception. The Iran Threat Geiger Counter from the Institute for Science and International Security measures on a regular basis Iran’s hostile actions and intentions toward the United States and U.S. allies, and its capability to turn these hostile intentions into action through the potential or actual construction of nuclear weapons. As with the radiation levels measured by a Geiger counter, any level above zero represents a degree of danger.
Since May 2023, the date of the last edition of the Counter, the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program has increased dramatically. This increased threat has been in part fueled by the Hamas terrorist attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, Israel’s subsequent invasion of Gaza, and subsequent attacks carried out by Iranian-backed proxy groups, including Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, and Ansar Allah (Houthi). The volatile situation in the region is providing Iran with a unique opportunity and amplified internal justification for building nuclear weapons while the United States and Israel’s resources to detect and deter Iran from succeeding are stretched thin. The ongoing conflicts are leading to the neglect of the Iranian nuclear threat at a time when Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities have never been greater. Coupled with decreased transparency over its nuclear program, for the first time in years, we are facing the real possibility that Iran may choose to weaponize its nuclear capabilities and build nuclear weapons.
These grave and concerning changes have led the Institute to raise the total threat score to 151 out of 180, up from 140 in May 2023, and assessed as Extreme Danger, the first time the Counter has reached this level.
Overview of Methodology
The Institute assigns the following threat level using a zero to 180 scale on the Iran Threat Geiger Counter:
0-30: Least Danger 31-60: Low Danger 61-90: Moderate Danger 91-120: Considerable Danger 121-150: High Danger 151-180: Extreme Danger
The Iran Threat Geiger Counter analyzes Iran’s activities in six categories and assigns up to 30 points for each category:
Hostile Actions (30 Points Max) Hostile Rhetoric (30 Points Max) Lack of Transparency (30 Points Max) Nuclear Breakout (30 Points Max) Sensitive Nuclear Capabilities (30 Points Max) Beyond Breakout (30 Points Max)
