U.S.-North Korea Arms Control Talks or Denuclearization? Analysts Are Divided
Ken Gause, senior adversary analytics specialist at the Center for Naval Analyses, told VOA Korean in a telephone interview on Monday, “The best thing to do is to freeze its nuclear program in return for sanctions relief and security guarantees.”
He continued that it is uncertain that North Korea would accept such a deal given its deepening military ties with Russia and economic support provided by China, but that Pyongyang would be more likely to engage with Washington and consider such a deal if Trump is reelected and makes the offer.
Citing unnamed sources, Politico reported in December that Trump is considering allowing Kim to freeze his nuclear weapons, rather than give them up, in exchange for financial incentives — if he wins the election. Trump quickly denied the claim.
“A long-term U.S. policy for North Korea needs to adapt to the recent fundamental shifts in North Korea’s approach to the international community as well as to the reality of North Korea being a de facto nuclear weapon country,” Frank Aum, senior expert on Northeast Asia at the U.S. Institute of Peace told VOA Korean via email.
However, other analysts warn of dangers of offering to let North Korea freeze its nuclear weapons and accepting it as a nuclear power.
Evans Revere, a former State Department official with extensive experience negotiating with North Korea, told VOA Korean via email, “A U.S.-DPRK negotiation aimed at achieving a freeze would effectively accept the permanence of North Korea’s status as a nuclear power.” North Korea’s is officially the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK).
He continued, “It would damage the U.S.-ROK alliance, encourage the ROK to develop its own nuclear deterrent.” South Korea’s official name is the Republic of Korea (ROK).
Revere added that North Korea will “never allow the United States to take the steps necessary to effectively monitor a so-called freeze,” which he believes Pyongyang would not honor in any case.
North Korea announced several times in the past that it would freeze its nuclear program but reneged on its promises. The most notable was the 1994 Agreed Framework under which Pyongyang agreed to freeze its nuclear reactor program in exchange for help in building nuclear power reactors less suitable for fueling nuclear weapons.
Bruce Klingner, senior research fellow for Northeast Asia at the Heritage Foundation, said via email, “Eight failed nuclear agreements with Pyongyang does not engender optimism nor does the regime’s decades of vows never to abandon the nuclear arsenal it promised never to build.”
He continued, “While some experts claim a freeze agreement would be something new that should be pursued, the first four failed agreements with Pyongyang were attempts to cap the North Korea nuclear program.”
Christy Lee is a VOA News reporter. This article is published courtesy of the Voice of America (VOA).
