CHINA WATCHDeveloping Effective Deterrence—from the War Fighters’ Perspective
The state of deterrence against China in the Indo-Pacific is constantly adapting to the evolving threat Beijing poses to the United States and its allies on multiple fronts. But a growing number of US military service members warn that deterrence is unravelling. Perspectives from individuals actively engaged in deterrence operations can help shape effective policy.
The state of deterrence against China in the Indo-Pacific is constantly adapting to the evolving threat Beijing poses to the United States and its allies on multiple fronts. But a growing number of US military service members warn that deterrence is unravelling.
The Houthi attacks targeting international shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden show that the status quo is cracking, fast.
Perspectives from individuals actively engaged in deterrence operations can help shape effective policy. Such insights were gained in conversations between ASPI DC analysts and officers across the services at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey Bay, California. These ‘deterrence from the deck’ discussions demonstrated a multifaceted analysis of some of the key political and military issues needed to inform policy to build and sustain deterrence. The emergence of security compacts such as AUKUS took on significant importance. It became clear from our interactions that there were substantial gaps in policy and in public discourse on the purpose of AUKUS and deterrence aims in the Indo-Pacific.
It is critically important to bridge these gaps to garner public support and safeguard the global system that has come under attack.
AUKUS serves two essential purposes. The first is that it offers the opportunity to act cohesively to shape the strategic environment in the Indo-Pacific. Although the headlines for AUKUS are dominated by nuclear-powered submarines, the agreement presents an opportunity to articulate and implement an overarching strategy to build deterrence that could alter Beijing’s cost-benefit calculus and restrain its aggressive behavior. Responding to China’s threat is necessary though that will not necessarily restore deterrence. However, applying an overarching strategic effort possibly will.
The second AUKUS purpose is the opportunity it provides to accelerate, amplify, and deepen integration, collaboration and interoperability across the allied militaries, technology industrial bases, and supply chain networks to shape the Indo-Pacific strategic environment.
This level of effort is unlikely to be achievable via a piecemeal approach. AUKUS presents the strategic rationale and glue to underscore its purpose, to build deterrence in the Indo-Pacific and to deflect China’s goal of shaping the environment to suit its strategic vision of sovereign subservience. Consequently, the strategic value of AUKUS lies not merely in advancing military capabilities, but in building a new strategic environment that makes it increasingly costly for China to get what it wants by shoring up allies and their capacity to maintain a strategic presence in the Indo-Pacific.
