US, Japan Military Alliance to Get Biggest Revamp Since 1951 | Why Russia Doesn’t Want War Between Israel and Iran | Global Stockpile of Cholera Vaccine Is Gone as Outbreaks Spread, and more
Why Russia Doesn’t Want War Between Israel and Iran (Michelle Grisé, National Interest)
In Israeli airstrike on an Iranian embassy in Syria last week killed three IRGC-QF generals and four other Iranian military officers. Iran is expected to retaliate in the coming days or weeks. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has vowed that Israel will “be punished” and “regret this crime,” while President Ebrahim Raisi said that the attack would “not go unanswered.” Fears are high that this could trigger an escalation of the Israel-Hamas war into a broader regional conflict and potentially even a direct confrontation between Iran and Israel. Although it has been argued that Moscow benefits from chaos in the Middle East—diverting Western attention and resources from Ukraine—it stands to lose a great deal if the Israel-Hamas conflict escalates into a wider war.
Russia has spent the last decade shoring up its influence in the region, often by taking advantage of localized conflicts. This was most evident in Libya, where Russia exploited the country’s civil war to establish a foothold, and in Syria, where Russian intervention saved the Assad regime from imminent demise in 2015. Russia then expanded its footprint in Syria, establishing a permanent presence at military bases in Tartus and Khmeimim. After the U.S. withdrawal from Syria in 2019, Russia stepped into the void, helping Syrian government forces regain control of the northeast of the country. The same year, Russia held joint naval exercises with Egypt; the construction of a Russian-built nuclear plant in Egypt earlier this year demonstrated the continued growth of ties between the two countries.
While Russia capitalized on instability in Syria and Libya to establish itself as a regional security guarantor, it is not positioned to reap similar benefits if the Israel-Hamas war escalates. In part, this reflects Russia’s preoccupation with its invasion of Ukraine. Last October, distracted by the war, Russia failed to intervene on behalf of former-ally Armenia as Azerbaijani military forces overran the ethnically Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. This suggests that Russia currently lacks the capacity to act as a stabilizing force in the post-Soviet sphere, let alone the Middle East.
Building a Foundation for Strategic Stability with China on AI (Edward Geist, FT / RAND)
This spring, the United States and China are expected to start talks on artificial intelligence (AI) safety. Expectations are low. These might be no more than conversations between specialists and analysts, rather than senior government officials.
But early, unproductive talks aren’t a total loss—as illustrated by nuclear arms negotiations during the cold war. Failed attempts to negotiate with Moscow in the 1950s paved the way for vital breakthroughs with the Soviets a decade later.
Analogous U.S. negotiations with Beijing on AI today could lay the foundation for the moment when both countries’ leaders realize how much they stand to gain from shared commitments.
Artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies are already central to military competition. China has used AI for cyber operations against the United States and our allies, as well as for modernizing its military systems. And although there are peaceful uses for AI, much like nuclear technology, the risks of misuse could be severe.
Global Stockpile of Cholera Vaccine Is Gone as Outbreaks Spread (Stephanie Nolen, New York Times)
Doses of cholera vaccine are being given to patients as fast as they are produced and the global stockpile has run completely dry, as deadly outbreaks of the disease continue to spread.
This does not shock anyone in the field of emergency epidemic response because the vaccine stockpile has been precariously low for years.
The surprise — the good news, which is in itself surprising since ‘cholera’ and ‘good news’ are rarely used together — is that three new vaccine makers are setting up production lines and joining the effort to replenish the stockpile.
And a fourth company, the only one that currently makes the vaccine, which is given orally, has been working at a pace that experts describe as “heroic” to expand its production.
Yet even with all this, the total global supply of the vaccine that will become available this year will be, at best, a quarter of what is needed.