How Will AI Change Cyber Operations? | Appeasement Is Underrated | The Militarization of Latin American Security, and more

in the period from the 1830s to the 1920s, revolts from actors outside the state—that is, excluding coup attempts and mutinies within the military—declined approximately 80 percent, from 52 per decade to only 9 per decade.
This shift is strongly correlated with increases in indicators of military strength and professionalization, even controlling for other potential explanations. According to our analyses, investments in the military—such as an increase in 10,000 troops or the opening of just one additional military academy—are associated with a 30 percent decrease in the likelihood of a revolt.

Why No “Plain Statement Rule” Bars a President’s Prosecution for Murder  (Albert W. Alschuler, Just Security)
In 2016, with the Iowa caucuses fast approaching, presidential candidate Donald Trump famously boasted: “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters, OK? It’s, like, incredible.”
We didn’t know then that Trump could have been referring not only toIowa voters but also to the justices of the Supreme Court.
Last week’s Supreme Court argument concerning Trump’s January 6 prosecution considered both his claim of “absolute immunity” from prosecution for acts within the “outer perimeter” of his official responsibility and a supposed “plain statement rule” that could allow a president to get away with serious crimes.
This supposed rule is drawn from a 1995 opinion of the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel (OLC), an office that provides legal advice to the president and executive-branch agencies. The opinion says: “[G]eneral statutes must be read as not applying to the President if they do not expressly apply where the application would arguably limit the President’s constitutional role.”
Trump’s counsel, D. John Sauer, championed this formulation, and at least one Supreme Court justice—Brett Kavanaugh—appeared to embrace it. Justice Neil Gorsuch might have indicated his approval too. But, according to the Special Counsel’s Office, only two of the thousands of federal criminal laws “expressly apply” to the president. Neither of these two laws is one of the federal murder statutes.
The OLC formulation wouldn’t prevent the prosecution of a president who shot someone on Fifth Avenue, if the president did it for purely personal reasons without any claimed “official” cover. But what if a president ordered the Air Force to bomb an apartment building on Fifth Avenue where a person on his or her enemies list resided? The Constitution says: “The President shall be Commander in Chief of the Army