Give France Credit for its Strategic Change | Just How Dangerous Is Europe’s Rising Far Right? | China Is Buying Gold Like There’s No Tomorrow, and more

Give France Credit for its Strategic Change  (Gesine Weber, War on the Rocks)
After openly discussing the potential of sending NATO troops to Ukraine recently, French President Emmanuel Macron is now being described as “the hawk” in some European capitals. His statements, however, offer just a glimpse into the underlying, and significant, changes in French strategic thinking over the last two years.
When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, France should, theoretically, have been in a good position to lead the European response. As the E.U. member state with the most significant military capabilities and a historic driver of European security and defense integration, France also had a president who, since taking office, had preached the importance of European strategic autonomy to other Europeans. However, because Paris had misread the threat that Russia represented, and Macron still argued in favor of building a European security order “with Russia” in early 2022, France could not credibly take the lead. Instead, the United Kingdom was left to play a vanguard role in the European response.
More than two years into the war, the rhetoric from Paris has significantly changed — and there are good reasons to believe that this change is permanent. In contrast to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Zeitenwende speech, in France it is hard to single out a watershed moment when this strategic transformation occurred. Yet many foreign policy paradigms have so fundamentally changed in Paris that, whatever happens on the battlefield, it is hard to believe that a return to 2020 thinking is possible. Macron’s second Sorbonne speech in mid-April further confirmed this, as did his recent interview with The Economist. In this conversation, Macron clearly emphasized his perception of Russia as an existential threat and the need for Europeans — beyond the EU —  to step up deterrence.
This change in French strategic thinking creates a window of opportunity to redesign the European security order. Leaders in Paris and European capitals should capitalize on it. For France, this means continuing to craft policies that build on this new rhetoric. For those working with or on France in other European states, this means giving Paris credit where it is due and constructively engaging, for example, with concrete proposals in response to Macron’s Sorbonne speech. If France’s European partners cling to old assumptions about the cynical nature of French foreign policy, they will miss a much-needed opportunity to strengthen the continent’s security.

Just How Dangerous Is Europe’s Rising Far Right?  (Roger Cohen, New York Times)
Across Europe, the far right is becoming the right, absent any compelling message from traditional conservative parties. If “far” suggests outlier, it has become a misnomer. Not only have the parties of an anti-immigrant right surged, they have seen the barriers that once kept them out crumble as they are absorbed into the arc of Western democracies.
This year the far-right surge across the continent looks dramatic. The latest polls show the National Rally with a clear lead, set to take some 31 percent of the vote in France compared with about 16 percent for the centrist Renaissance coalition of President Emmanuel Macron. Mr. Bardella is the only politician among France’s 50 “favorite personalities,” according to a recent ranking in the Journal du Dimanche newspaper.
The result is that anti-immigrant parties may win as many as a quarter of the seats in the 720-seat European Parliament. This could lead to a hardening of immigration regulations Europewide, hostility to environmental reform, and pressure to be more amenable to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.

China Is Buying Gold Like There’s No Tomorrow  (Daisuke Wakabayashi and Claire Fu, New York Times)
Often considered a safe investment during times of geopolitical and economic turmoil, gold has soared in price in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the war in Gaza. But gold’s climb to highs above $2,400 per ounce has proved more resilient, and lasted longer, because of China.
Chinese consumers have flocked to gold as their confidence in traditional investments like real estate or stocks has faltered. At the same time, the country’s central bank has steadily added to its gold reserves, while whittling away at its holdings of U.S. debt. And throwing fuel on the fire are Chinese speculators betting that there is still room for appreciation.

The Chilling of the Fourth Estate After 10 Years of Modi  (Amrita Singh, Foreign Policy)
Given a weak opposition and his preference for top-down communication, there is no platform, except for such interviews, where Modi could be questioned for his actions and Indians can witness the prime minister be put on a spot. But journalists who end up talking to him adopt an uncritical approach—they seldom question him on issues of national importance and, instead, often air sensational jingoistic content, cheerleading him and his policies. The impression a casual observer gets is that Modi’s truth is the truth and his actions are always in the best interest of the country.
Modi has demonstrated that this is the only form of journalism he would like in India—one that would clear his path to attain his and the Hindu right’s goals of retaining electoral power and establishing a Hindu rashtra, or nation. While those in the mainstream media, such as Times Now and Republic TV, often meet this requirement, his government cracks down on independent journalists who still question his actions. This is a worrying trend for a democracy: Propaganda is encouraged, and actual journalism is demonized.