WORLD ROUNDUPThe South China Sea Risks a Military Crisis | Biden’s Bold Gaza Cease-Fire Gambit | Ecuador Is Literally Powerless in the Face of Drought, and more
· The South China Sea Risks a Military Crisis
The Philippine president drew a red line this week, but mutual restraint from Manila and Beijing can calm tensions
· How to Respond to China’s Tactics in the South China Sea
Beijing is testing the U.S.-Philippines alliance, and a new strategy is needed
· Biden’s Bold Gaza Cease-Fire Gambit
The president has pushed events as far as he can, but even American presidents have their limits
· The U.S.-Saudi Agreement Is a Fool’s Errand
For the sake of the international order, Biden must abandon his proposed deal with Riyadh
· Ecuador Is Literally Powerless in the Face of Drought
Drought-stricken hydro dams have led to daily electricity cuts in Ecuador. As weather becomes less predictable due to climate change, experts say other countries need to take notice
· Thaksin’s ‘Royal Insult’: A Warning to Thai Ex-PM?
Analysts explore whether a court appearance for a ‘royal insult’ made in 2015 could be an attempt to thwart the ex-PM’s political ambitions
· Beijing Bristles as US Defense Chief Shifts Focus to China Risks
U.S. seeking to alleviate concerns that conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza have distracted from America’s security commitments in the region
The South China Sea Risks a Military Crisis (Sarang Shidore, Foreign Policy)
Anticipating a serious military crisis in the South China Sea is not alarmist. Incidents involving Chinese coercive actions—collisions, the use of water cannons and military-grade lasers, and swarming—are being reported with greater frequency and have even injured Philippine naval personnel. China has also become more assertive in law: A recent order provides for the detention of anyone suspected of trespassing within Beijing’s claim line in the South China Sea, which could be the prelude to a dangerous incident in the coming months.
Manila also shows no signs of pulling back its forays to the Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal, two key flash points in the South China Sea. The United States has sent a message by firmly backing the Philippines and doubling down on its “ironclad commitment” to its ally. When it comes to confronting Beijing, it seems that Manila is pushing on Washington’s open door. The cascading entry of other U.S. allies such as Australia, France, and Japan into the theater is another concerning development.
The public stances of the Philippines, China, and the United States in the South China Sea are well established. As Marcos asserted at Shangri-La, the Philippines refers to its sovereign rights and international law, citing the 2016 judgment by the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague that ruled overwhelmingly in its favor. China talks of sovereignty and maritime rights and interests. The United States cites Chinese coercion and threats to freedom of navigation.
Dig deeper, though, and there are other factors at play—many of which are pushing the region toward escalation.
How to Respond to China’s Tactics in the South China Sea (Derek Grossman, Foreign Policy)
The odds of armed conflict in the South China Sea are high and rising. China’s relentless assertiveness against the Philippines—harassing ships inside Manila’s internationally recognized Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), most notably at Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal—has led to a situation where war in the South China Sea now seems more likely than at any other Indo-Pacific flash point, including the Taiwan Strait and Korean Peninsula. (Cont.)
