The South China Sea Risks a Military Crisis | Biden’s Bold Gaza Cease-Fire Gambit | Ecuador Is Literally Powerless in the Face of Drought, and more

To be sure, the Philippines’ security alliance with the United States has so far deterred China from more serious attacks on the Philippine military or other government assets. But the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty—which commits Washington to come to Manila’s aid if the latter is under military attack—has utterly failed to deter Beijing from escalating its coercive gray-zone tactics—aggressive actions designed to irreversibly change the status quo without resorting to lethal force. These tactics have included ramming, shadowing, blocking, encircling, firing water cannons, and using military-grade lasers against civilian ships and military vessels. China also relies on its formidable coast guard and so-called fishing militia—comprised of fishermen who are trained and equipped by the military—to patrol, loiter in, and occupy disputed areas, establishing a quasi-permanent presence that the targeted country cannot easily dislodge.
On June 15, moreover, Beijing is reportedly planning to implement a new policy that would authorize the Chinese coast guard to detain foreigners crossing into waters claimed by China. These waters include most of the South China Sea—based on Beijing’s own expansive historical claims rather than international law, which in this case is the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. (For comparison, imagine if Germany claimed the entire North Sea, or if the United States claimed the entire Caribbean right up to the South American coast.)
In the past, China has attempted to cordon off its claims with floating barriers and, most recently, is accused by Manila of building an artificial island at Sabina Shoal—150 kilometers (about 93 miles) from the Philippines’ Palawan Island, but 1,200 kilometers (746 miles) from the closest point in China. A well-informed source who asked to remain anonymous told me that Manila is already blocked from accessing approximately 30 percent of its recognized EEZ due to Chinese salami-slicing tactics. Absent an effective response, this percentage will only rise in the coming years.
In fact, China has the Philippines in an ever-tightening stranglehold that is increasingly compromising the latter’s sovereignty and territorial integrity at sea. If international law is to be upheld and borders are to remain inviolable, the United States must do more to help the Philippines. Yet neither Manila nor Washington seem to have a viable plan to counter Beijing’s successful gray-zone tactics.

Biden’s Bold Gaza Cease-Fire Gambit  (Yair Rosenberg, The Atlantic)
For weeks, American officials have referred to an “extraordinarily generous” offer made by Israel to secure a cease-fire and hostage deal with Hamas in Gaza. Today, President Joe Biden told the world what that offer actually is. Speaking from the White House, Biden laid out a multistage “Israeli proposal” for ending the current war and called on Hamas to accept its terms, and for the Israeli leadership to stand behind the deal despite internal right-wing pressure to fight on.
For close observers, most of the information in Biden’s speech was not new. Many details from the negotiations between Israel and Hamas had already been leaked to the Israeli and international press. But Biden’s remarks are the first time that the terms of the proposed deal have been officially confirmed. By making this material public, Biden clearly hopes to pressure the parties to finally come to an agreement. But the key decisions remain beyond his control.

The U.S.-Saudi Agreement Is a Fool’s Errand  (David M. Wight, Foreign Policy)
The Biden administration is on the cusp of entering an ill-advised bilateral agreement with Saudi Arabia. The deal would undermine larger U.S. strategic aims for the Middle East and global order. It could also pose dangerous political risks for President Joe Biden.
Washington and Riyadh are reportedly close to finalizing a pact that would see the United States provide security guarantees for Saudi Arabia and assist in the development of its civilian nuclear program. Supporters of the arrangement maintain that it will enhance regional security by bolstering the U.S.-led alliance in the Middle East against Iran, checking the rising influence of China in the Arab world, and facilitating the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Yet those alleged benefits are either overstated or patently false.
Meanwhile, the potential harms of a Saudi-U.S. deal—which include revived Saudi military adventurism, the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the Persian Gulf, hits to Washington’s global credibility, and further divisions within the Democratic Party ahead of the U.S. presidential election—outweigh any possible benefits for either the Biden administration or international security.
Proponents of the prospective enhanced security agreement argue that it is necessary to deter Iranian aggression. The extent of the security arrangement remains under negotiation, though U.S. officials have indicated that it would likely include formal U.S. defense guarantees and access to more advanced U.S. weapons for Saudi Arabia, potentially including F-35 fighter jets. Reporting suggests that the deal would fall short of a NATO-style pact, however.

Regardless of its specifics, a new Saudi-U.S. security deal is of dubious geopolitical value to the United States. Saudi Arabia has—and continues—to benefit from many decades of U.S. arms sales as well as military and diplomatic assistance. The United States has more than $100 billion in active foreign military sales to the kingdom, according to the State Department. Existing U.S. support for Saudi Arabia places significant constraints on Iranian actions; Tehran knows that if it were to engage in open warfare with Riyadh, it would likely face a regime-threatening response from Washington. Simply put: The deterrent already exists.
What a new U.S. security agreement would do, however, is reward the reckless behavior of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler. Mohammed bin Salman has flouted international norms and destabilized the Middle East with (among other actions) his disastrous military intervention in Yemen, temporary detention of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, blockade against U.S.-allied Qatar, and murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Ecuador Is Literally Powerless in the Face of Drought  (Hannah Singleton, Wired)
Ecuador is in trouble: Drought has shrunk its reservoirs, and its hydroelectric dams have had to power down. The government has been forced to cut electricity to homes for hours at a stretch, and in mid-April, President Daniel Noboa declared a 60-day state of emergency. Since then, homeowners have been taking cold showers and struggling without internet access, while restaurants have been serving up meals by candlelight to avoid closing and losing perishable food. For businesses, that’s the worst, says Etiel Solorzano, a Quito-based tour guide for Intrepid Travel. “Three hours of no power? You can go bankrupt for that.”
Some days, the power outages have lasted up to eight hours or more, says Juan Sebastián Proaño Aviles, a sustainability coordinator and mechanical engineering professor at the Universidad San Francisco de Quito. Things have improved a little—power cuts are now no longer a daily occurrence—but Proaño Aviles expects sporadic energy shortages to continue for years. “It’s going to be a problem,” he says. “We have to do something pretty fast.”
In regions that receive most of their precipitation in a short period each year—like Ecuador, Southeast Asia, and the American West—reservoirs have historically been effective at storing water. (In Ecuador and Southeast Asia, a rainy season contrasts a dry season, while the American West gets heavy snow during fall and winter.) Managing agencies can then gradually release the stored water throughout the year to generate power as needed. This dependability helped make hydropower the largest renewable electricity source in the world.

Thaksin’s ‘Royal Insult’: A Warning to Thai Ex-PM?  (Tommy Walker, DW)
Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is being taken to court over an alleged insult to the kingdom’s royal family during a 2015 interview.
He is expected to be indicted under Thailand’s controversial lese majeste law, one of the strictest in the world, which carries lengthy prison sentences  — up to 15 years per offense — for those who criticize the monarchy.
Thaksin is also expected to be indicted for violating a computer crime law that outlaws the entry of false data into a computer system that is likely to cause damage to Thailand’s security or public safety.
Thaksin is no stranger to legal troubles. He fled Thailand in 2008 to avoid a prison term for several charges, including corruption and tax evasion following a military coup in 2006.
He returned to Thailand in August 2023 and was convicted of abuse of power and conflicts of interest, and sentenced to eight years in prison. Hours after being imprisoned, he was transferred to hospital, as he was suffering from high blood pressure and chest pain.
He was released in February 2024 after just six months’ detention due to health reasons and a royal pardon from King Maha Vajiralongkorn. 
The latest charges against Thaksin stem from a remark he allegedly made in an interview with a media outlet in Seoul, South Korea in 2015. He accused the Privy Council of Thailand of being involved in protests that preceded the 2014 military coup in the kingdom.
Thaksin had been set to appear in court on Wednesday over the charges, but the hearing was postponed as the political heavyweight is currently infected with COVID.
“Looking from a political lens, I was a bit surprised,” Tita Sanglee, an independent analyst based in Thailand, told DW.
“These issues should have been sorted out as part of the political ‘deal’ between Thaksin and the old guard. By getting out of prison basically scot-free, Thaksin has already demonstrated his dominance over the judicial process.”

Beijing Bristles as US Defense Chief Shifts Focus to China Risks  (Reuters)
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin tried to refocus attention on China’s threat in the Asia-Pacific region on Saturday, seeking to alleviate concerns that conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza have distracted from America’s security commitments in the region.
Austin, who was speaking at the annual Shangri-La Dialogue security summit in Singapore, met his Chinese counterpart, Dong Jun, on Friday in a bid to cool friction over issues such as Taiwan and China’s military activity in the South China Sea.
There has been increasing concern that Washington’s focus on helping Ukraine counter Russia’s invasion and support for Israel’s war in Gaza, while trying to ensure that the conflict does not spread, has taken away attention from the Indo-Pacific.
Some U.S. officials say Beijing has become more emboldened in recent years, recently launching what it described as “punishment” drills around Taiwan, sending heavily armed warplanes and staging mock attacks after Lai Ching-te was inaugurated as Taiwan’s president.
About $8 billion in U.S. funding is set aside for countering China in the Indo-Pacific as part of a supplemental funding bill passed by lawmakers.