IRAN’S NUKESAnalysis of the IAEA’s Iran NPT Safeguards Report - May 2024
For the second time in its quarterly safeguards reports on Iran’s compliance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has drawn attention Iran’s current ability to make nuclear weapons. Without strong and decisive action y the IAEA, Iranwill succeed in steadily augmenting its nuclear program penalty-free, enabling it to build a nuclear weapon more quickly than Western powers could detect and stop.
For the second time in its quarterly safeguards reports on Iran’s compliance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has drawna direct line between Iran’s non-compliance with its comprehensive safeguards agreement (CSA) and concern about Iran’s current ability to make nuclear weapons. In the most recent report, dated May 27, 2024, the IAEA Director General cites Iran’s technical capabilities to make nuclear weapons and comments by Iranian officials about changes to the country’s nuclear doctrine as a reason for increased concern about the correctness and completeness of Iran’s safeguards declarations.
As in several past reports, the IAEA stated that it had not changed its assessment regarding undeclared nuclear material and/or activities at four sites – Lavisan-Shian, Varamin, Marivan, and Turquz-Abad. Concluding that a nuclear declaration is incomplete means Iran has violated its safeguards agreement.
Although Iran admitted that it had misstated the quantities of uranium at the Uranium Conversion Facility (UCF) and filed a new uranium material declaration, that resolution led to another discrepancy. The IAEA found additional nuclear material unaccounted for, which cannot be explained by accountancy measurement errors, at JHL [Jaber Ibn Hayan Multipurpose Laboratory]. The IAEA’s findings highlight concern that even when Iran admits to undeclared activities or materials, it is hiding something else.
The report once again expresses the IAEA’s condemnation of Iran’s de-designation of several of its key enrichment inspectors and failure to reinstate them and Iran’s refusal to declare new nuclear facility construction as required under Modified Code 3.1 of the subsidiary arrangements to its CSA.
Despite the IAEA launching an effort to reinvigorate the measures in a March 2023 IAEA/Iran Joint Statement on improving agency monitoring in Iran and resolving the outstanding safeguards investigation, the IAEA report concludes, “There has been no progress in the past year towards implementing the Joint Statement.”
It is long overdue that the Board of Governors provide more support to the IAEA, not only condemning Iran’s lack of cooperation as it did in its November 2022 board resolution, but also providing a deadline for compliance. The IAEA has stated that Iran has undeclared nuclear materials and activities, and Iran flatly denies it. The board must decide if it is going to believe the director general’s technical assessment or Iran’s blunt denial. Doing nothing is equivalent to dismissing the inspectors’ assessments and accepting Iran’s word.
