OUR PICKSAssassination and the American Presidency | The Crumbling Edifice of Conventional Deterrence, and more

Published 22 July 2024

·  Russian Influence Ops Are the “Preeminent Threat” to November’s Elections, U.S. Officials Say
Moscow appears to still favor Donald Trump as it promotes divisive narratives and denigrates other politicians, IC and FBI officials said

·  The AMIA Bombing: Thirty Years Later
Victims of Iranian and Hezbollah terrorism in Argentina now have hope of bringing their perpetrators to justice

·  Secret Service Director Testifying Before Congress About Trump Rally
Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle is testifying before the House Oversight Committee amid calls for her resignation after the Trump rally shooting

·  Next-Generation U.S. Jet Fighter Program May Get Hit By Budget Woes
The U.S. Air Force’s ambitious next-generation fighter jet program, envisioned as a revolutionary leap in technology, could become less ambitious as a result of budget pressure

·  Assassination and the American Presidency: What History Tells Us
No one knows what will happen now, but we must recognize that the attempted assassination of Trump is unlikely to be the last violent incident in the 109 days before November 5—whether by another deranged loner or some avenger.

·  A Week of Conspiracies and Calls for War
In the days since the shooting at Trump’s Pennsylvania rally, a slew of conspiracy theories have taken off

·  Fortnite Has a Political Violence Problem
In a report shared exclusively with WIRED, the Global Project Against Hate and Extremism says it found more than a dozen user-generated games on Fortnite that featured antisemitism and political violence

·  Alleged ‘Maniac Murder Cult’ Leader Indicted Over Plot to Kill Jews
US prosecutors have charged Michail Chkhikvishvili, also known as “Commander Butcher,” with a litany of crimes, including alleged attempts to poison Jewish children in NYC

·  The Crumbling Edifice of Conventional Deterrence
Successful deterrence will require policymakers with strategic vision, commanders with imagination and daring, and durable linkages among allied partners across the conflict domains of land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace

Russian Influence Ops Are the “Preeminent Threat” to November’s Elections, U.S. Officials Say  (David Dimolfetta, Defense One)
In the months leading into this November’s presidential election, Russian influence operatives have already begun targeting specific voter demographics, promoting divisive narratives and denigrating specific politicians in an effort to undermine the integrity of the election process and sow further domestic divisions, intelligence officials say.
It means Moscow is now seen as the “preeminent threat” to U.S. election security in 2024, an official in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence told reporters Tuesday in a briefing that included staff from the FBI and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.
Former president Donald Trump — returning as the expected Republican presidential candidate — was not explicitly named by officials, but they noted that Russia has not changed its stances since its past 2016 and 2020 election interference attempts.
“We have not observed a shift in Russia’s preferences for the presidential race from past elections, given the role the U.S. is playing with regard to Ukraine and broader policy toward Russia,” the official said.
ODNI officials said Russian spin doctors plan to covertly use social media to amplify narratives that could sway public opinion in election swing states and diminish U.S. support for Ukraine. Pro-Russian messaging and influence attempts have also been made through encrypted direct messaging channels, they added.
Russia’s war on Ukraine is one such flash point. Some GOP lawmakers have echoed Russian propaganda in criticizing the Biden administration’s hefty financial support for Kyiv. Donald Trump was impeached for withholding congressionally authorized military aid to coerce Ukrainian officials to make politically damaging statements about Joe Biden in the runup to the 2020 presidential election.

The AMIA Bombing: Thirty Years Later  (Toby Dershowitz and Emanuele Ottolenghi, National Interest)
On July 12, Argentina’s President Javier Milei placed Hamas on its terrorism list, proclaiming the government’s “unwavering commitment to recognizing terrorists for what they are.” 
The terrorism of the organization that is bankrolled, trained, and inspired by the Islamic Republic of Iran once again hit home for Argentina. On October 7, Hamas kidnapped nine-month-old Kfir and his older brother Ariel, along with their parents Shiri and Yarden Bibas, from their home in Kibbutz Nir Oz, along with other Argentine family members. They were among the more than 200 people abducted from their homes in Israel as Hamas assaulted the country, savagely killing some 1100 people, including reportedly nine citizens of the South American country.
The Argentine Foreign Ministry identified twenty-one of their citizens believed to have been taken hostage by Hamas on October 7. Six Argentinian hostages were freed on November 27 and 28 as part of a ceasefire deal. Thirteen are thought to remain in Gaza as of today.

Secret Service Director Testifying Before Congress About Trump Rally  (Maria Sacchetti, Nick Miroff and Jacqueline Alemany, Washinton Post)
U.S. Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle told a House committee Monday that the FBI informed her that the gunman who attempted to assassinate former president Donald Trump at a July 13 campaign rally in Pennsylvania used a drone in the area before the shooting.
“That information has been passed on to us from the FBI,” she said in testimony before the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability.
Cheatle frustrated some committee members by declining to answer some questions. She would not say how many agents were assigned to Trump that day but said the number was “sufficient.” Nor would she say whether the Secret Service deployed a drone to surveil the area or how the gunman gained access to an unsecured roof and fired an AR-style rifle at the rally without being stopped by the Secret Service or local police.
“So can you answer this question, which I think is on the mind of most Americans thinking about this?” said the committee’s top Democrat, Jamie Raskin (Md.). “How can a 20-year-old with his father’s AR-15 assault weapon climb onto a roof with a direct 150-yard line of sight to the speaker’s podium without the Secret Service or local police stopping him?”
She did not have the answer. “I will say we are nine days out from this event, and I would like to know those answers as well, which is why we are going through these investigations to be able to determine that fully,” she said.

 

Next-Generation U.S. Jet Fighter Program May Get Hit By Budget Woes  (Reuters / VOA News)
The U.S. Air Force’s ambitious next-generation fighter jet program, envisioned as a revolutionary leap in technology, could become less ambitious as budget pressure, competing priorities and changing goals compel a rethink, defense officials and industry executives said.
Initially conceived as a “family of systems” centered around a sixth-generation fighter jet, the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program is meant to replace the F-22 Raptor and give the United States the most powerful weaponry in the sky well into the mid-21st century.
When it was first proposed, expectations were high, including an unmatched stealth capability to keep it invisible from even the most sophisticated radar, laser weapons and onboard artificial intelligence to process masses of data coming from the latest in sensor technology.
However, sources said the current development budget of $28.5 billion over five years ending in 2029 could be spread out over more time or scaled-back as the Pentagon searches for a cost-effective solution.

Assassination and the American Presidency: What History Tells Us  (Graham Allison, National Interest)
Biden, Trump, and leaders from all sectors of our society have been unanimous in asserting: this is not us. On Sunday, Donald Trump posted: UNITE AMERICA.” In his statement to the nation that night, President Biden declared: There is no place in America for this kind of violence.  Period.” 
As we now attempt to make this aspiration a reality, we cannot avoid an ugly but undeniable brute fact: what happened in Butler, Pennsylvania last week was not abnormal. Over the course of our nations history, assassination has been a recurring, indelible strand in our presidential politics.
Of the 45 men who have served as President of the United States, how many have been targets of serious assassination attempts that nearly ended their lives? Twelve: 27%. Four died from gunshots. Eight survived near misses, most notably Teddy Roosevelt, who after having been shot in the chest insisted on finishing his campaign speech before going to the hospital.
First, no one knows what will happen in the coming months. But we must recognize that the attempted assassination of Trump on July 13 is unlikely to be the last violent incident in the 109 days before November 5—whether by another deranged loner or some avenger.
Second, heightened risks demand much better performance than we saw from our government last week. Extraordinary risks require extra-ordinary vigilance and extra-ordinary preventive actions. The Director of the Secret Service and her agency demonstrably failed. To cite just one instance, where were the drones? The “eyes in the sky” used by many local law enforcement agencies would have identified a shooter climbing onto a roof a football field away from the podium and setting up his AR-15 assault rifle. Director Kimberly Cheatle and the others responsible for Trumps security last week should be summarily fired. The most competent counter-terrorist experts in our government work not for the Secret Service but for the Defense Department and intelligence community. They should immediately review the agencys current capabilities and procedures and do whatever is necessary to ensure significantly safer security for both presidential candidates going forward. (Cont.)