THE AMERICASWill Maduro Hold on to Power in Venezuela’s 2024 Election?
The closely watched elections on July 28 will determine whether incumbent President Nicolás Maduro wins a third term or allows a democratic transition.
On July 28, up to twenty-one million voters will pick a president and vice president in Venezuela’s most open contest in more than a decade. The increasingly authoritarian President Nicolás Maduro is seeking a third six-year term against opposition frontrunner Edmundo González Urrutia and eight other candidates. Under his rule, the economy more than halved, the political space closed, and many Venezuelans voted with their feet. Nearly eight million people, or around a fifth of the population, have left the country since Maduro first took office in 2013 in one of the largest displacement crises in the world. The majority have stayed in Latin America and the Caribbean; an estimated nearly three million live in neighboring Colombia alone.
Who Are the Main Candidates?
Edmundo González Urrutia. A retired diplomat and relative newcomer to electoral politics, González Urrutia is the candidate for the Unitary Platform, the main opposition coalition. He currently commands a sizable lead in independent polls.
Nicolás Maduro. Incumbent since 2013, Maduro trails González Urrutia by around twenty percentage points in most independent polls, though some report the gap has shrunk since December.
The government approved the participation of eight other candidates who collectively poll around or below 10 percent.
What’s at Stake?
Democracy. A potential opposition win would bring new possibilities for democracy and political stability. González Urrutia has committed to reestablishing independent institutions—courts, legislatures, and government agencies—restoring freedom of expression, and releasing all of Venezuela’s nearly three hundred political prisoners. On the other hand, some pollsters predict that his loss could wipe the opposition off Venezuela’s political map, making future democracy even less likely.
Economy. The opposition seeks to revive the economy after decades of government mismanagement and corruption that has shrunk the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) by roughly three-quarters, driven tens of millions into poverty, and pushed millions more to leave. More than 80 percent [PDF] of Venezuelans live in poverty and nearly 70 percent of hospitals lack basic services and medical supplies. And while the six months of U.S. sanctions relief boosted oil revenues, they failed to bring production over one million barrels per day.
