Key U.S. Adversaries ‘Hiding Their Hand’ as They Hone Election Influence Operations
“When President Trump was in the Oval Office, Russia and all of America’s adversaries were deterred, because they feared how the United States would respond,” national press secretary for the Trump campaign, Karoline Leavitt, told VOA in an email.
Russia and Iran have also denied past allegations of election meddling, while Chinese officials have said Beijing has “no intention” of interfering.
But U.S. intelligence officials Monday pushed back against Russian, Iranian and Chinese denials.
The number of instances of influence efforts or interference threats flagged for further review “thus far has more than doubled from prior [election] cycles,” said a second U.S. intelligence official.
Part of the reason, the second official said, is that presidential elections tend to get more attention than so-called midterm elections. But even so, the number of worrisome influence efforts is expected to increase further in the coming weeks and months.
“We also anticipate that we probably will see even greater focus from our adversaries even as we get closer to the election,” the official said.
U.S. officials likewise expressed concern that Russia, China and Iran are working harder to obscure their influence operations and “better hide their hand.”
Russia and China, in particular, are turning to marketing and public relations companies to refine and distribute their narratives to Americans, who may think that the messages are coming from other, real U.S. voters.
“These firms essentially offer election influence in a box,” said the first intelligence official. “In addition, they are more nimble and have fewer bureaucratic hurdles.”
The intelligence officials said Russia tends to use Russian companies while China has turned mostly to domestic Chinese firms. But they noted a growing number of private companies are offering such services, including outfits in the Middle East and Latin America.
“This is something that is increasingly a concern of ours, given how active they are both in the United States but also overseas in other elections and other democracies,” the intelligence official said.
The use of third-party companies, though, still accounts for just a small fraction of the overall influence operations, some of which are being run by intelligence agencies in Russia and Iran, which have also sought to use Americans in more direct ways.
“Foreign actors continue to rely on witting and unwitting Americans to seed, promote, and add credibility to narratives that serve the foreign actors’ interests,” according to the assessment released Monday.
For Moscow, the tactic is not new, though officials said there are indications the Kremlin’s efforts have intensified.
There is likewise growing concern about Iranian overtures to Americans, given ongoing outreach by Tehran to U.S. persons protesting U.S. support for Israel in Israel’s war against the Hamas terror group.
Russia, China and Iran are not alone in their efforts to influence the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
Officials Monday said Cuba has launched what they described as “localized influence operations” aimed at undercutting political candidates opposed to Cuba’s communist government.
Officials said other countries are also running influence operations aimed at the election and that though the scope and scale varies, they all pale in comparison to the ongoing campaigns from Russia, China and Iran.
Jeff Seldin is VOA national security reporter. The article is published courtesy of the Voice of America (VOA).
