WORLD ROUNDUPChina Hawks’ Faith in Trump Is Delusional | What Next After Ukraine’s Shock Invasion of Russia? | The U.S. and China Can Lead the Way on Nuclear Threat Reduction, and more
· China Hawks’ Faith in Trump Is Delusional
The former president is too ill-disciplined and corrupt to confront Beijing
· Lifting DRC Mining Sanctions Would Be a Critical National Security Error
Lifting corruption-related mining sanctions on Israeli businessman Dan Gertler would undercut the integrity of the U.S. sanctions program and threaten the U.S. own national security and economic interests
· Filling the Void Left by Great-Power Retrenchment: Russia, Central Asia, and the U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan
The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, ending in August 2021, created favorable conditions for Russia to reassert itself as a regional hegemon in broader Central Asia
· The U.S. and China Can Lead the Way on Nuclear Threat Reduction
Policies of “no first use” are a model for nuclear states
China Hawks’ Faith in Trump Is Delusional (Robert E. Kelly, Foreign Policy)
When Donald Trump first ran for the U.S. presidency in 2016, a wave of writing suggested that he was a realist. In this framing, Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton was presented as a neoconservative hawk who would start wars. Trump, by contrast, would balance U.S. commitments with its resources. He would avoid foreign conflicts and quagmires. He would be less ideological in his approach to nondemocratic states.
In 2024, this thinking has returned. Some realist voices are again suggesting that Trump is one of them. Trump’s desire to end the war in Ukraine—even though he simply intends to let Russia win—is taken as evidence of this. So is the selection of Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his vice presidential candidate. Vance has famously said that he does not care what happens to Ukraine. Conversely, he is a China hawk who seems to believe the United States cannot support both Taiwan and Ukraine simultaneously.
The notion that U.S. support for Taiwan and Ukraine is a trade-off is the most controversial component of the Trump realist position. Former Defense Department official Elbridge Colby, for example, has argued prominently that U.S. support for Ukraine undercuts its ability to help Taiwan, and that Europe should be almost exclusively responsible for helping Ukraine (or not).
But these hopes are badly misplaced. A second Trump term may well take an entirely different tack on China from the hawks—and even if he wants to move against Beijing, he lacks the discipline and ability to do so.
Lifting DRC Mining Sanctions Would Be a Critical National Security Error (Virginia Canter, Just Security)
At the beginning of his term, President Joe Biden named fighting corruption as a core U.S. national security interest, and his administration was quick to propose a new strategy and implement powerful new rules aimed at cracking down on corrupt financial practices. But now it appears the administration is walking back its commitment. After originally reinstating sanctions for engaging in “extensive public corruption” in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) against Israeli businessman Dan Gertler in March 2021, which had been lifted in the final days of the Trump administration, it appears the Biden administration may soon lift the sanctions against the mining tycoon, apparently in order to secure U.S. access to precious metals in the DRC.
For years, corruption accusations have plagued Gertler, stemming from deals he struck with former leaders of the DRC. His dealings and mining operations reportedly deprived the Congolese people of $1.36 billion in revenue, and his actions are emblematic of how disadvantaged communities are disproportionately impacted by inadequate corruption laws, as unchecked corruption further deepens economic inequalities. In December 2017, former President Donald Trump moved forward with instituting sanctions against Gertler for major corruption in his dealings to obtain rights to mine minerals in the DRC. The sanctions cut off Gertler’s access to international banking systems and his assets held in U.S. banks. (Cont.)
