Hamas’s Devastating Murder of Hersh Goldberg-Polin, and more

On Sunday night Berlin went through all these stages of performative political grief and more. In Thuringia, Alternative for Germany (AfD) was on track to become the first radical right-wing party to come first in a state election since 1933. In Saxony the exit polls put it neck and neck with the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the main party of the center right.
Four things are clear. First, these elections are an emphatic slap around the chops of the political establishment. The second lesson is that the AfD vote is far more entrenched than many had assumed. Third, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) has arrived as a force to be reckoned with. Finally, though, it is important not to over-interpret these results. Germany is not in any sense heading back to the early Thirties.

Russia ‘Changing Nuclear Rules’ in Light of Western Support for Ukraine  (Marc Bennetts, The Times)
Russia has warned that it will change its rules for the use of nuclear weapons in response to western involvement in the war in Ukraine.
President Putin has threatened on several occasions that Russia could carry out nuclear strikes over the West’s military support for Kyiv. President Zelensky and some western officials have dismissed the warnings as a bluff.
However, Sergei Ryabkov, the deputy foreign minister, said that work to modify the Kremlin’s nuclear doctrine was at an “advanced stage”. “There is a clear intent to make corrections,” he said, adding that the decision was linked to the West’s policy of “escalation” in Ukraine.
Ryabkov’s comments came after hardliners in Moscow urged Putin to lower the threshold for the use of nuclear missiles to “sober up” Nato. Dmitry Trenin, a prominent analyst at a think tank that advises the Kremlin, has said that Moscow should alter the doctrine to state that Russia will use nuclear weapons first when “core” national interests are at stake, including in Ukraine.
Under Moscow’s rules, Russia can use its vast nuclear arsenal if the existence of the country is under threat, including through the use of conventional weapons, or if it detects the launch of enemy nuclear missiles.

Taiwan Dares China to Seize Land from Russia  (Richard Lloyd Parry, The Times)
President Lai is using history as a weapon in Taiwan’s rhetorical war with China about its right to claim sovereignty over the self-ruling, democratic island.
Lai has pointed out that the grounds on which Beijing claims Taiwan should also motivate it to claim back large areas of territory from Russia that were ceded by China in the 19th century under what it regarded as a series of exploitative land grabs by imperialist foreign powers.
In an interview with Taiwanese television, Lai referred to the 1858 Treaty of Aigun in which the Qing dynasty signed away to the tsar 230,000 square miles of land — an area bigger than France — in what is now the Russian Far East.
The Qing ceded Taiwan to imperial Japan in 1895 in a similar “unequal” treaty, which Beijing denounces as a historical injustice that violated the natural and historic boundaries of China’s rightful territory. Hong Kong came under British rule during a similar period of weakness for China.
But despite insisting that Taiwan is an “unalienable” part of China, Beijing makes no complaint about the much more extensive Russian occupied lands along the Amur River, which were formerly its own.
Having declared a “friendship without limits” shortly before the invasion of Ukraine, President Xi is closer than ever to Vladimir Putin while being increasingly hostile towards Lai, who insists on Taiwan’s right to govern its own affairs while stopping short of an outright declaration of independence.
Lai is mischievously making the point that China’s determination for “reunification” with Taiwan, which has run its own affairs since 1949, is about power rather than principle. “China’s intention to attack and annex Taiwan is not because of what any one person or political party in Taiwan says or does,” Lai said. “It is not for the sake of territorial integrity that China wants to annex Taiwan.