MIDDLE EASTThe Israel-Hezbollah Conflict: Where It Stands
Cross-border fighting has returned to a lower intensity following Israel’s preemptive strike in Lebanon, but the conflict could escalate again, and a reprisal from Iran remains likely.
How significant was the weekend exchange of attacks between Israel and Hezbollah?
The Israelis have warned since the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah’s leader Fuad Shukr in recent weeks that they would preempt any impending retaliatory attack. That is precisely what happened on Sunday. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reportedly targeted six thousand Hezbollah rocket launchers in southern Lebanon in a significant demonstration of both force and technical capability. Even so, Hezbollah was able to launch more than two hundred rockets and drones at northern Israel, causing limited damage.
It seems clear that while the Israelis have not deterred Hezbollah from firing on Israel, the IDF’s demonstration of force against the Lebanon-based militant group over the last eleven months, combined with Sunday’s preemption, have compelled Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah to think twice about launching more significant attacks on central Israel and critical Israeli infrastructure. After declaring Hezbollah’s operation on Sunday a success (it was not), Nasrallah indicated that he would prefer to avoid any further escalation.
What are the chances of a sharp escalation between the two sides, including an Israeli ground offensive?
Nasrallah’s willingness to de-escalate in this instance should be cold comfort to policymakers, Israelis, and the Lebanese for two reasons. First, Nasrallah has no intention of ordering Hezbollah to stand down, which means that the cross-border fire and counterfire between the group and the IDF will continue. As a result, about one-hundred-thousand Lebanese and almost as many Israelis will remain forced out of their homes near the two countries’ border for the foreseeable future. Second, Israel’s leaders are determined to push Hezbollah back from the border to the banks of the Litani River, about eighteen miles north. Israel has declared their preference is a diplomatic deal but are prepared to use force to accomplish their goal. Presumably, this would entail a major IDF ground operation.
The Israelis are wary of diplomatic attempts to end the hostilities with Hezbollah, citing UN Resolution 1701 (2006), which, among various other measures, required Hezbollah to be dismantled and prohibited forces other than the Lebanese Army and UN peacekeepers from operating in the territory between the Litani River and the Lebanon-Israel border.
What’s the status of Israel-Iran tensions? Are there still expectations of an Iranian military reprisal for the assassination of Haniyeh?
Israel and Iran are effectively at war. The two countries were engaged in an unconventional conflict years before
