NUCLEAR WARThe Unthinkable: What Nuclear War in Europe Would Look Like
If Russia were to launch a massive nuclear strike on Ukraine or Western Europe, there is not much the continent could do to stop it. NATO’s internal calculations reportedly predict that in the event of an all-out attack from Russia, the military bloc has “less than 5 percent” of the air defenses needed.
In the latest grim uptick of Russia’s nuclear weapons policy, President Vladimir Putin suggested on September 25 that the Kremlin could use nuclear weapons against any state attacking Russia if that country was supported by a nuclear power.
If Russia were to launch a massive nuclear strike on Ukraine or Western Europe, there is not much the continent could do to stop it.
Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR), is widely considered to be the world’s leading Western expert on Russia’s nuclear weapons. He says there is no indication such a catastrophe is anywhere close to becoming a reality, but he paints a bleak picture of how a nuclear strike on Europe would unfold.
“If there were to be some kind of a massive launch — or several [Russian] missiles have been launched — then it’s pretty much impossible to guarantee that everything will be intercepted,” he says.
NATO’s internal calculations reportedly predict that in the event of an all-out attack from Russia, the military bloc has “less than 5 percent” of the air defenses needed.
Russia is believed to hold some 1,700 nuclear warheads inside more than 500 missiles able to be launched within minutes from silos, mobile launchers, submarines, and aircraft. The United States would probably be the primary target, but many of those missiles are known to be intended for Europe.
But if missile barrages are effectively unstoppable, what should civilians do in the event of a nuclear strike?
Some European capitals maintain Cold War-era nuclear shelters that are quietly being refreshed. In Kyiv, a nuclear bunker was recently reopened and made available for use.
In Prague, a network of Cold War bunkers has seen a spike in interest from locals since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The bunkers “are still functional since the fall of socialism and can be activated if necessary,” Jan Mikes, the head of the mayor’s crisis management department in the district of Prague 2, confirmed to RFE/RL.
A spokeswoman from the Czech Republic’s Fire Rescue Service told RFE/RL that, beginning in 2023, the service began updating “requirements for the shelter system and the shelters themselves,” without elaborating further.
In Germany’s Ahr Valley, near Bonn, Heike Hollunder, the director of a nuclear bomb shelter that now operates as a museum, reported a significant recent jump in visitors.
