The Unthinkable: What Nuclear War in Europe Would Look Like

“The interest increased, especially from younger people, because of the war in Ukraine,” she told RFE/RL. “Could the bunker still be used? Is there a nuclear bunker for the government in Berlin? These are the main questions.”

But such drastic precautions are probably futile. Podvig says a Russian nuclear strike would offer precious little time to escape to a hardened shelter. From launch to impact over a target in Central Europe, Podvig estimates, “would be in the order of 10 minutes or so.”

The United States maintains a network of satellites able to instantly spot the plume of a rocket being launched, but that system would probably be useless to countries close to Russia.

“The United States has all these sorts of warning systems — the satellites and all that. But I would doubt that this information could be shared very quickly or at all with U.S. allies in the European states,” Podvig says.

Models of what modern nuclear weapons would do to cities make for bleak reading. A single Russian Topol-M missile would explode into a kilometer-wide ball of fire that would incinerate every living thing it touched. Within a 7 kilometer radius, countless civilians would die from severe burns and be crushed under the rubble of buildings destroyed by the shock wave. Then would come radiation that would saturate the blast site and poison air and water.

British military historian Basil Liddel Hart was witness to a 1955 war game in which NATO ran through a scenario of full-scale nuclear war with the Soviet Union. NATO won the exchange, but as the hypothetical dust settled, nearly every treasure of the Western world lay in ruins. Hart later described the experience as “very disturbing.”

Victory, he wrote, “had lost its point.”

Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev is reported to have said that after all-out nuclear war, “the living will envy the dead.”

UNIDIR’s Podvig is cautious about revealing his own calculations.

“I just try not to think about it because I know some catastrophic scenarios that are pretty bad,” he says.

As at the height of the Cold War, the only hard deterrent today is the mutually assured destruction that the West’s own stockpiles of hundreds of nuclear missiles ensures, along with a controversial policy of launch on warning (LOW).

The LOW posture allows for the United States to launch retaliatory strikes if incoming missiles are detected, before any impact on U.S. soil. The policy would prevent America’s own nuclear weapons from being destroyed in situ, but leaves open the possibility of a civilization-ending error.

Despite the steadily rising tensions between Russia and the West, Podvig says a nuclear apocalypse remains only a distant prospect.

“I do believe that before it would come to that, to the real possibility, we’ll see quite a few kind of further escalation steps,” he says.

Along with specific rhetoric, Podvig predicts, “we would see some movements of weapons and things like that.”

He says he’s confident that it remains “very unlikely that this could be something out of the blue.”

Amos Chapple is a New Zealand-born photographer and picture researcher with a particular interest in the former U.S.S.R. This article is reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL).