WORLD ROUNDUPThe Mother of All Security Crises | The Lessons and Legacy of October 7 | Austria’s Far Right Did Not Win, and more

Would Vladimir Putin Eat Donald Trump for Lunch?  (Steven Pifer, National Interests)
The vice president showed how easily Donald Trump can be manipulated. That only confirms what adversaries such as Mr. Putin and Mr. Kim already know. They hope for his return to the presidency so that they can play him some more.

The Mother of All Security Crises  (Lawrence Wilkerson, Project Syndictae)
US defense officials recognized early on that climate change would bring more humanitarian disasters and greater security risks, and this is exactly what has happened. The longer the issue goes unaddressed, the worse our future worst-case scenarios will become.

Why Has Syria Stayed Out of the Israel-Hezbollah Conflict?  (Sirwan Kajjo, VOA News)
One expert says the Syrian government’s reticence to join Iran’s threats against Israel “likely stems from the regime’s sense that it has nothing to gain by escalation and much to lose.”

(François Godement, The Diplomat)
There’s an obvious anti-U.S. bent to China’s ties with Russia, Iran, and North Korea, but Beijing must tread carefully lest it be pulled deeper into conflict than it is willing to go.

Nuclear Stalemate Sparks Debate Over Information Campaign Aimed at North Korea  (Young Gyo Kim, VOA News)
As a nuclear standoff between the United States and North Korea continues with no diplomatic off-ramp in sight, some experts in Washington say an information campaign aimed at pressing North Korea should be considered as an alternative strategy, while others caution against such an approach.

The Lessons and Legacy of October 7  (Richard Haas, Project Syndicate)
It is possible to win a war on the battlefield and still lose it. Israel has done precisely that in Gaza, by choosing to fight a conventional war against an unconventional foe without a plan for what comes next.

Conservative Think Tank Pushes U.S. to Continue Engagement in Pacific  (Jessica Stone, VOA News)
In the 45-page report, Andrew Harding, a research assistant in the Heritage Foundation’s Asian Studies Center, argues that it’s time to make the case to taxpayers and Washington policymakers that investing in the Pacific Islands is money well-spent because it “counters Chinese ambitions” and denies Beijing a foothold “that can threaten U.S. national security interests and complicate possible future military operations in Asia.”

Austria’s Far Right Did Not Win  (Maciej Kisilowski, Project Syndicate)
Across Europe, far-right populists consistently frame elections as a stark choice between an indistinguishable assortment of corrupt mainstream parties and themselves. But if those are the stakes, a mere plurality victory for the populist party is actually a loss, and should be treated that way.

Why the Hard-Right Herbert Kickl Is Unlikely to Be Austria’s Next Chancellor (Economist)
In spite of his strong win.

Israel Scales Up Fight Against Hezbollah  (Ben Hubbard, Farnaz Fassihi, and Alissa J. Rubin, New York Times)
A new framework of the fighting was made clear by large overnight blasts in the southern suburbs of Beirut, where Hezbollah holds sway, and Israel’s apparent readiness to expand a ground invasion in the south.

China is Using an “Anaconda Strategy” to Squeeze Taiwan  (Economist)
Taiwan’s navy commander warns that his forces are increasingly strained.

More Wars, a Failed State, and a Step Back by the United States (Daniel Byman, Foreign Policy)
What to expect after the war in Gaza ends.