7 OCTOBER: ONE YEAR ONA Year to the Start of the Latest Round of the Israel-Hamas Conflict: Q&A with RAND Experts

One year ago on October 7, Hamas fighters poured across the Gaza border in an attack that left 1,200 Israelis dead. Israel’s counterattack into Gaza killed more than 41,000 over subsequent months. The Middle East seems to be on the verge of a broader conflict following Israel’s offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran’s missile attack on Israel.

The bloody conflict has highlighted a complex web of strategic, geopolitical, and humanitarian challenges. In this Q&A, RAND experts delve into the regional and global implications of the conflict, the factors that led up to it, and where it could be headed. They also explore the geopolitical fallout, including shifts in U.S. foreign policy and the evolving dynamics between Israel and its neighbors.

What factors were at play one year ago that made possible the Hamas offensive and the shocking loss of life?
Raphael S. Cohen The short answer is Israeli strategic hubris. Prior to the October 7 attack, Israel thought it had contained, deterred, and appeased Hamas—by a mixture of building a wall around Gaza, fighting small scale prior wars, and letting economic aid into Gaza and providing limited permits for Gazans to work in Israel. Consequently, the Israeli leadership thought they had the Hamas problem in hand. And as October 7 demonstrated, they did not.

Mark C. Schwartz There was certainly complacency on behalf of the Israeli intelligence services and Israeli Defense Forces Southern Command. Reporting after October 7 documents that there were clear indications and tactical reporting that Hamas was planning a major operation against Israel, yet the warnings were dismissed.

How has the situation in the region changed in the last year?
Brian Michael Jenkins The October 7 attacks dealt a massive blow to Israel’s reputation for superb intelligence, to the collective psyche of the Israeli people, and to the credibility of its deterrence strategy. Operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon may have restored the vaunted reputation of Israel’s intelligence services, but at further cost to its international support.

Michelle Grisé Hamas’s October 7 attacks on Israel and the ensuing Israel-Gaza war have contributed to the destabilization of the broader Middle East over the last year. The Hamas offensive and the war have put a damper on efforts to normalize relations between Israel and other countries in the region. The war has emboldened Iran and its proxies to conduct increasingly provocative attacks, including direct strikes on Israel carried out by Iran and the Houthis.