WORLD ROUNDUPIsrael’s Oct. 7 Early Warning Failure: Who Is to Blame? | China Is Oversupplying Lithium to Eliminate Rivals | The World’s Most Innovative Country, and more

Published 9 October 2024

·  Washington Worries the Israelis Will Bomb Iran’s Nuclear Sites. But Can They?

·  Western Sahara and a Fraught Path to Peace

·  The Counterterrorism-as-Influence Competition in Africa

·  Shattering Illusions: How Cyber Threat Intelligence Augments Legal Action against Russia’s Influence Operations

·  Israel’s Oct. 7 Early Warning Failure: Who Is to Blame?

·  China Is Oversupplying Lithium to Eliminate Rivals, U.S. Official Says

·  The World’s Most Innovative Country

·  October 7 Created a Permission Structure for Anti-Semitism

·  The Mistakes Israel Can’t Afford to Repeat

·  Iran Crisis Ignites New Debate About Trump’s Nuclear Deal Exit

Washington Worries the Israelis Will Bomb Iran’s Nuclear Sites. But Can They?  (David E. SangerEric Schmitt and Ronen Bergman, New York Times)
For 22 years, Israeli forces have planned for this moment. But it seems unlikely that they will strike Iran’s nuclear facilities in the next round of retaliation, or that they would be successful without American help.

Western Sahara and a Fraught Path to Peace  (Marcus Ray, Lawfare)
Morocco gains further support for its Western Sahara claim, but deep divisions and regional tensions make peace unlikely anytime soon.

The Counterterrorism-as-Influence Competition in Africa  (Jason Warner, Lawfare)
Russia is gaining new partners in Africa, but is it really a loss to the United States?

Shattering Illusions: How Cyber Threat Intelligence Augments Legal Action against Russia’s Influence Operations  (Mason W. Krusch, Just Security)
On Sept. 4–5, in a potent demonstration of the efficacy of legal countermeasures founded on actionable cyber threat intelligence, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) and Treasury Department unleashed a whirlwind of seizures, indictments, and sanctions targeting assets of Russia’s malign influence operations.

Israel’s Oct. 7 Early Warning Failure: Who Is to Blame?  (Ehud Eiran, Ofer Guterman, and David Simantov, War on the Rocks)
Despite the operational and intelligence successes of Israel in Lebanon in September 2024, a troubling question hangs over the country: Who bears responsibility for the failure to anticipate the Oct. 7 Hamas assault that led also to the war in Lebanon and on other fronts?

China Is Oversupplying Lithium to Eliminate Rivals, U.S. Official Says (Reuters / VOA News)
Chinese lithium producers are flooding the global market with the critical metal and causing a “predatory” price drop as they seek to eliminate competing projects, a senior U.S. official said on a visit to Portugal that has ample lithium reserves.

The World’s Most Innovative Country (Economist)
A ranking of 133 countries shows that the global innovation boom is stalling.

October 7 Created a Permission Structure for Anti-Semitism  (Dara Horn, The Atlantic)
What American Jews have experienced in the past year is both a pattern and a warning.

The Mistakes Israel Can’t Afford to Repeat  (Michael Oren, The Atlantic)
If it wants to win its third war in Lebanon, it will need to learn from the last two.

Iran Crisis Ignites New Debate About Trump’s Nuclear Deal Exit  (Michael Crowley, New York Times)
President Donald J. Trump labeled it “the worst deal in history.” But critics of the withdrawal say it prompted Iran to accelerate its nuclear program.