HOMELAND THREATAS2025 Homeland Threat Assessment

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Intelligence Enterprise Homeland Threat Assessment reflects insights from across DHS, the Intelligence Community, and other critical homeland security agencies. The assessment focuses on the most direct, pressing threats to the U.S. homeland during the next year.

It is organized into four sections. This assessment is organized around DHS missions that most closely align or apply to these threats—public safety, border and immigration, critical infrastructure, and economic security. As such, many of the threat actors and their efforts cut across mission areas and interact in complex and, at times, reinforcing ways.

Here is the assessment’s introductory section:

Scope Note
The Office of Intelligence and Analysis of the Department of Homeland Security presents the 2025 Homeland Threat Assessment, which provides insights from across the Department and other homeland security stakeholders to identify the most direct, pressing threats to our Homeland during the next fiscal year (FY). This Assessment organizes evolving threats to homeland security missions arising from the dynamic terrorist threat, the increasing complexities straining the immigration system, transnational organized crime, proliferating cyber threats, and geopolitical strategic competition into four sections: Public Safety and Security, Border and Immigration Security, Critical Infrastructure Security, and Economic Security. This Assessment employs a traditional intelligence assessment format in which summary assessment paragraphs are followed by bullets with additional details that underpin the assessment.

We note that many of the threat actors and efforts addressed in this Assessment appear in multiple sections as they cut across mission areas and interact in complex and, at times, reinforcing ways. Throughout this Assessment, we also examine enduring issues, such as the development and proliferation of new technologies and climate change, which involve various mission areas and impact multiple threats. Definitions for terms and additional contextual notes are included at the end of this document.

Executive Summary
The Homeland faces a complex set of threats to our public safety, border security, critical infrastructure, and economy from violent extremists, transnational criminal organizations (TCOs), adversarial nation-states, and malicious cyber actors. These threats, while varied in scope and intended purpose, at times compound one another in unexpected ways, harming our communities and generating costly disruptions to the US economy. Meanwhile, technological advances, climate change, and natural disasters have the potential to exacerbate many of the aforementioned threats.