CIVIL WARAgainst Hyping Civil War and Mass Violence
The hype across media about the prospect of another U.S. civil war needs a response. Taking steps to prevent and prepare for violence always makes sense, but it should not be viewed as a suggestion that the United States is on the brink of civil war. Don’t believe—or spread—these false narratives.
The hype across media about the prospect of another U.S. civil war needs a response. As a researcher on terrorism and mass shootings, I take note of things like a major Hollywood movie on the subject. But when even the staid magazine Foreign Policy felt compelled to run a series of articles addressing the possibility, things have gotten bad. One of those articles even noted that civil war would be bad for the economy. Indeed, it would.
Given the narratives, it’s no surprise that, in a recent poll, a quarter of Americans expressed at least some worries that a new civil war will start after the presidential election. However, what does the evidence show? I believe that if the United States were on the brink of civil war, it’s safe to assume that the level of political violence in the country would be far higher than it is.
Mass attacks on the U.S. public are rare, given the size of the country. The FBI documented 50 active shooting incidents in 2023, and few appear to have been motivated by partisan divisions.
RAND studies looking at over 600 plots for mass attacks found that, historically, close to two-thirds were personally motivated, driven by factors like local grievance, desire for infamy, delusion, and so forth. Of the remainder, around one-fifth were al Qaeda– or ISIS-motivated. Less than one-fifth were attributable to domestic political agendas.
Even the would-be assassin who shot former President Trump in July appears to have been in search of a celebrity target, rather than a political one. The shooter looked at opportunities to attack in general and chose the Butler, Pennsylvania rally out of convenience.
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“If the U.S. were on the brink of civil war, it’s safe to assume that the level of political violence in the country would be far higher than it is.”
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Outside of mass attempts to kill, the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data organization notes that incidents of political violence carried out by domestic extremists are down by more than 80 percent since 2020. There were fewer than 10 across the United States during the first eight months of 2024.
