IMMIGRATIONWhat a Trump Presidency Means for Millions of Migrants and Their Families in the U.S.
In the US election, a tough-on-immigration stance from president-elect Donald Trump, including promises of mass deportations, appears to have resonated with voters. History shows that these policies may have initial public support, but raise other issues when executed.
The immigration debate has long shaped political agendas in the US and Europe, often escalating in times of social or economic uncertainty. In the US election, a tough-on-immigration stance from president-elect Donald Trump, including promises of mass deportations, appears to have resonated with voters.
History shows that these policies may have initial public support, but raise other issues when executed. President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s 1954 Operation Wetback deported over 1 million Mexican nationals, blending fear-based public messaging with large-scale enforcement.
Despite its devastating impact on thousands of families, including many US citizens of Mexican heritage, the program faced backlash. It was extremely costly and logistically difficult, and ultimately did little to stop irregular migration from Mexico. Many of those who were deported returned to the US soon after.
Fast forward to the Trump era, where promises of a “impenetrable, physical, tall, powerful, beautiful, southern border wall” and more deportations in 2016 tapped into similar populist views.
Now, in 2024, Trump has doubled down with “Operation Aurora” pledging even tougher immigration enforcement measures.
Deportation: Rhetoric and Reality
Looking past the bombastic electoral rhetoric, deportation campaigns face significant hurdles. In addition to financial cost, any program is likely to face public opposition and legal challenges.
The government will need cooperation from migrants’ home countries and transit nations (which is hard to obtain), and diplomatic bargaining is likely to be required. Logistically, removing one million people per year (as promised during his campaign) would demand mobilizing civil servants on an unprecedented scale. Due process protections are sure to add further delays, especially considering the existing backlog in immigration tribunals.
Challenged on the feasibility of the plan, vice president-elect J.D. Vance has suggested a “sequential approach” will be employed, targeting those who have committed crimes before gradually widening the scope.
Traditionally, there is little opposition to the removal of people with criminal convictions. But mass removals, especially of young people who grew up in the US, people with no criminal record and family members of US citizens, is a different matter.
Meanwhile, the US economy relies on undocumented labor across various industries. Agriculture employs significant numbers of immigrant workers – many undocumented – to harvest crops. Construction, hospitality and caregiving are supported by immigrant labor where Americans are less likely to fill demanding, low-wage roles. Calls for stricter enforcement may be met by resistance from employers in these sectors.
