SYRIAThe Russia-Iran-Assad ‘Axis of the Vulnerable’ Is Cracking in Syria
Starting in 2016, Russia and Iran, propping up the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Since 2020, Assad has presided in name over part of a fractured country. Now Assad does not even preside over his share of the partition. And his Russian and Iranian enablers, overstretched and isolated by much of the world, are not in a position to restore his paper rule.
The so-called “axis of the vulnerable” is breaking in Syria. Starting in 2016, Russia and Iran, propping up the regime of Bashar al-Assad, needed more than a year of bombing, ground assaults and siege to break the rebel opposition in the east of Syria’s largest city, Aleppo.
Now, in 2024, the rebels needed less than four days to liberate the city and most of Aleppo province. They also regained territory in neighboring Idlib province and moved south into northern Hama before the Assad regime established defensive lines.
Russian forces remained in their bases on the Mediterranean. And Iran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah were caught by the rebel advance in their positions in north-west Syria. They abandoned them, but not before at least two commanders were slain.
Since 2020, after Russia and Iran helped his forces roll back the opposition in much of Syria, Assad has presided in name over part of a fractured country. He and his allies held most of the largest cities, including Aleppo and the capital Damascus, while Turkish-backed opposition groups controlled most of north-west Syria and US-backed Kurdish factions had autonomy in the north-east.
Now Assad does not even preside over his share of the partition. And his Russian and Iranian enablers, overstretched and isolated by much of the world, are not in a position to restore his paper rule.
Propping Up Assad
From the start of Syria’s uprising against the longtime rule of the Assads in March 2011, Russia and Iran provided political, logistical, intelligence and propaganda assistance to the Assad regime.
Iran effectively took over the Assad military from September 2012, training tens of thousands of militiamen to fill depleted forces. Hezbollah sent in its fighters from 2013 to save the Assad regime near Lebanon’s border. And Russia intervened with special forces and air power from September 2015.
Much of the success of Assad and his allies lay in their ability to wear down the international community. The Kremlin spread disruptive disinformation to cover for the regime’s deadly chemical attacks and to denigrate opposition activists and Syria’s White Helmets civil defense.
The Obama administration, rather than holding the regime to account, was led by the nose into fruitless discussions of a ceasefire. The EU was sidelined, the UN rendered impotent, and Arab governments eventually sat on their hands.
