WORLD ROUNDUP: SYRIAHow the World Got Syria Wrong | Assad’s Fall Is the Middle East’s 1989 | The Assads Were Fighting the Wrong War, and more

How the World Got Syria Wrong  (Charles Lister, Foreign Policy)
The international community misjudged the strength of the Assad regime—and its fixation on an external political process is being overtaken by internal events.

What Syria’s Rebel Takeover Means for the Region’s Major Players: Turkey, Iran and Russia  (Natasha Lindstaedt, The Conversation)
Syria is now fragmented into regions controlled by disparate armed factions that have enjoyed backing of varying degrees from Russia, Iran, Turkey, the US, the Gulf states and Israel. There will be continued support for each of these armed factions by these major international powers, which will be vying to ensure their regional interests are preserved.

Exploiting Disarray in Syria, Israel Grabs More of the Golan Heights  (Economist)
The incursions are neither justified nor necessary.

How the Loss of Its Mediterranean Naval Base in Syria Would Weaken Russia as a Global Power  (Basil Germond, The Conversation)
The loss of Tartus certainly won’t force Russia to stop its war in Ukraine. Moscow has demonstrated resilience to strategic setbacks in the past. But it is a serious blow to Moscow’s image as a great power. And this is something that the Kremlin can ill afford ahead of a second Trump presidency.

Assad’s Fall Is the Middle East’s 1989  (Lina Khatib, Foreign Policy)
One of many consequences is the demise of Iran’s self-styled Axis of Resistance.

I Interviewed Syria’s Militias at the Start of the War – They Will Listen If Other Countries Engage Them  (William Plowright, The Conversation)
These events in Syria have massive implications for the country and the region, and at the centre of it is HTS. It remains unclear if the group will be able to hold power in Syria, and if they do, what sort of regime they will seek to build.
The reaction of regional and global powers will be pivotal in this moment, in which engagement with HTS is of vital importance if the opportunity for peace is to be seized.

The Assads Were Fighting the Wrong War  (Benjamin Byman, Foreign Policy)
Syria’s ruling family had shaped its security agencies to fend off coups, not uprisings.

Assad Leaves Behind a Fragmented Nation – Stabilizing Syria Will Be a Major Challenge for Fractured Opposition and External Backers  (Sefa Secen, The Conversation)
The apparent end of the Assad family’s rule after half a century of brutal oppression signifies a pivotal moment for Syria – offering an opportunity to rebuild the nation on foundations of inclusivity, pluralism and stability.
Achieving this vision depends on the opposition factions’ ability to navigate the immense challenges of transition. This includes fostering unity among diverse groups, addressing grievances from years of conflict and establishing governance structures that reflect Syria’s ethnic, religious and political diversity. That will be no easy task.

The Day After Assad  (Natasha Hall and Joost Hiltermann, Foreign Affairs)
How the Syrian Dictator’s Stunning Fall Will Scramble the Balance of Power in the Middle East

Syria Is Again a Victim of Its Geography (Arash Reisinezhad,Foreign Policy)
The country’s civil war is over—but there’s no stability to restore.