MASS ATTACKSEvidence-Based Solutions to Protect Against Mass Attacks
Mass attacks like the New Year’s Day incident in New Orleans stir public emotion and have tragic consequences. While the investigations into this case will take time, we know from our work that there are things law enforcement and the public can do to mitigate and perhaps stop mass casualty events.
Mass attacks like the New Year’s Day incident in New Orleans stir public emotion and have tragic consequences. While the investigations into this case will take time, we know from our work that there are things law enforcement and the public can do to mitigate and perhaps stop mass casualty events.
The New Orleans car ramming caused the death of 14 people and the separate incident in Las Vegas, created fear and uncertainty, even if the latter did not turn out to be an act intended to harm others. While it’s impossible to say if these specific incidents were preventable, there are ways to make such attacks more difficult.
First, we know that layered security works. To complete a high-fatality attack, a would-be terrorist must become committed to violence, plan, acquire weapons and skills, complete preparations, get on scene, get through the site’s perimeter and internal security measures, and attack a crowd without being stopped quickly. A system-based, or layered, approach, puts the odds in law enforcement’s favor, as the attacker must be lucky many times to succeed while defenders only need to succeed once.
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“A system-based, or layered, approach, puts the odds in law enforcement’s favor, as the attacker must be lucky many times to succeed while defenders only need to succeed once.”
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Thus, security managers need to think systemically about what their sites look like and how layers of security will work collectively. Access and entry control systems, including working external and internal door locks, secured windows, and secured entry spaces like monitored entry paths and secured vestibules (PDF) have all helped protect against attackers. On-scene security, as well as aware and engaged bystanders, have stopped many attacks, as well; notably, bystanders tackling shooters to the ground have been highly effective in ending mass shootings. The strategies of “Run, Hide, Fight,” or alternately, “Avoid, Deny, Defend,” have been effective.
Early detection is one of the most important layers of defense. In New Orleans, no specific clues were reported prior to the incident itself. Our research shows that when there is no initial clue, mass attacks have a better chance of being completed. However, when there are direct threats, tips, an investigation, or other criminal investigations, attempts at such attacks are often thwarted, more than 80 percent of the time in one of our studies.
It’s important for the public to know the key signs of a potential mass attack plot, especially when someone shows clear, serious intentions to attack, and has taken concrete actions to do so. Also it’s critical that people know where to report suspected plots. For policymakers and budgeters, providing training and support for threat assessment teams following up on tips is crucial. While it’s too late to stop the Bourbon Street attack, the attacker did post videos describing his initial detailed plans to kill his family, his joining the Islamic State terrorist network, and a last will and testament. These are all examples of concrete preparations that could have been reported to authorities before the attack.
We also know that failure to deploy proven tools and techniques can be fatal. The criticism that security barriers were not deployed on Bourbon Street is indeed warranted. In cases like New Orleans, in which bollards were not available because of malfunctions, other solutions can be used. For example, garbage trucks or other large vehicles can provide an additional layer of security for special events, and have been used before to counter the threat of vehicle rammings.
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“It’s important for the public to know the key signs of a potential mass attack plot, especially when someone shows clear, serious intentions to attack, and has taken concrete actions to do so.”
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In both New Orleans and Las Vegas, rental vehicles were used, which presents another opportunity for deterrence. Equipping rental vehicles with autonomous braking, which starts braking automatically if a collision is imminent and the driver is not taking any action, could help. Geofencing, which can be used to limit rental vehicles’ geographic autonomy, could also make automotive attacks more difficult.
Other emerging technologies offer various avenues to stop or mitigate damage from attacks, whether they be used to detect and report clear warning signs of plots before they are launched or are integrated to activate security measures at the first signs that an incident may be coming.
Ultimately, we know that mass attacks will continue. We also know that hardening one target, can lead a potential attacker to look for weaknesses and opportunities in another location. However, we are confident that municipalities, law enforcement agencies, and the private sector can come together to detect, deter, and mitigate threats to the public from terrorism and other acts of targeted violence.
Richard (Dic) Donohue is a policy researcher and John S. Hollywood is a senior operations researcher at RAND, a nonprofit, nonpartisan research institution. This article is published courtesy of RAND.
