TERRORISMThe August 2024 Taylor Swift Vienna Concert Plot
The Vienna Taylor Swift concert plot highlights an alarming trend of Islamic State-inspired teenage jihadis targeting events to inflict maximum casualties and attract widespread media attention. The plot also underlined that Islamic State Khorasan (ISK), which appears to have inspired the lead plotter, remains an enduring threat, evolving its tactics and strategy while focusing on radicalizing followers and supporters through relentless online propaganda.
Concerts and large public gatherings have, over the course of the past decade, become increasingly vulnerable targets for terrorist attacks and mass shootings. On November 13, 2015, Islamic State terrorists attacked multiple locations across Paris, including the Bataclan Theater, resulting in approximately 130 fatalities.1 Similarly, in May 2017, an Islamic State-inspired suicide bombing at an Ariana Grande concert in Manchester2 claimed the lives of 22 people. Just four months later, a lone gunman killed 60 attendees when he opened fire at a Las Vegas music festival, and although the Islamic State made a rare false claim of responsibility, no links were ever established, and the incident was not deemed an act of terrorism.3
On March 27, 2024, Islamic State Khorasan (ISK) carried out a terrorist attack on a sold-out concert at Crocus City Hall on the outskirts of Moscow, the deadliest incident in Russia in nearly two decades, with at least 143 casualties.4 Throughout the spring and summer of 2024, ISK encouraged its followers in online posts to target large gatherings at stadiums in London, Madrid, and Paris, including events such as the 2024 Paris Olympic Games,5 high-profile soccer matches during the UEFA European Championship in Germany,6 UEFA Champions League games,7 and other gatherings including crowded concerts.
This article begins by examining the particular dynamics of the plot in Vienna targeting the Taylor Swift concert. The alleged perpetrators were seeking to conduct a mass casualty attack at the concert venue, eerily reminiscent of the Islamic State-inspired Manchester Arena attack. After laying out the specific details of the plot, the article focuses on the importance of information sharing and intelligence cooperation between allies, which was essential to preventing the attack. It then analyzes the attack tactics of the plot, looking at some tactical similarities with previous European plots and attacks. Next, the article provides an overview of how the Islamic State is successfully engaging with youth on platforms such as TikTok, where its propagandists use pop culture references as an onramp for more radical content. In the section that follows, the article identifies other issue areas relevant to the plot, such as the pairing of online and offline radicalization, especially in the Balkan jihadi nexus, and the role of mental health. It concludes by placing the Taylor Swift plot in context alongside other ISK-driven European plots as well as the broader transatlantic threat posed by the group.
