CRITICAL MINERLSTo Avoid a Ukraine-Style Quid Pro Quo, Australia Needs to Work with the U.S. on Critical Minerals
With Donald Trump back in the White House, Washington is operating under a hard-nosed, transactional framework in which immediate returns rather than shared values measure alliances. For Australia, this signals a need to rethink its approach to the US relationship. A key step would be to work with the United States in the extraction and processing of Australian critical minerals.
With Donald Trump back in the White House, Washington is operating under a hard-nosed, transactional framework in which immediate returns rather than shared values measure alliances. For Australia, this signals a need to rethink its approach to the US relationship.
A key step would be to work with the United States in the extraction and processing of Australian critical minerals. By partnering with the US in this area, and freeing both countries from reliance on China, Australia can solidify its alliance position. It can raise itself further above the level of Ukraine, whose vast reserves of critical minerals (including rare earth elements) have become a mere bargaining chip in negotiations with Washington.
Trump’s objective with Ukraine—a minerals-for-security quid pro quo—is emblematic of the new US foreign policy doctrine, in which assistance is granted not on principle but in return for something tangible. Since Australia is a top-four global producer of rare-earth elements, with reserves critical to US defense and technology industries, a question arises: could Trump demand a similar deal from Australia?
Australia should not wait for the request to come but rather put forward a strategy, or series of proposals with the US and other partners such as Japan, that are in the interests of itself and global security.
Unlike Ukraine, which seeks military aid to fight an immediate existential threat, Australia has an alliance with the US that is still based on the shared strategic interest of regional stability and deterrence of aggression. Articles III and IV of the ANZUS Treaty oblige the parties to ‘act’ in response to threats against the other, but interpretation of that has always been uncertain.
Under Trump’s America First doctrine, coming to Australia’s aid could be accompanied by a compensating demand for greater access to Australia’s rare earth elements, lithium, cobalt and titanium.
Unlike Ukraine, however, Australia is not merely a resource supplier. As a regional power with strategic assets of immense military value to the US, it has a far stronger bargaining position.
Trump’s approach to alliances is brutally simple: nations must prove their worth in tangible, immediate terms. This is where Australia has an advantage. Beyond critical minerals, it provides the US with something far more valuable: strategic positioning and intelligence infrastructure.
