THE RUSSIA CONNECTIONUnderstanding Russian Hybrid Warfare Elections in Moldova and Georgia
While most Americans would be hard pressed to locate Moldova or Georgia on a map, these elections serve as a lesson in how Russia employs hybrid warfare to undermine U.S. security and advance Russia’s interests globally.
In the fall of 2024, both the Republic of Moldova and the country of Georgia held major and contentious national elections, the results of which sent shockwaves through their respective societies, as well as the international community more broadly. While Moldova managed to remain on its pro-European path, Georgia’s “Georgian Dream” Party, a pro-Russian party in power since 2012, won again despite mass outrage and accusations of election interference. While most Americans would be hard pressed to locate Moldova or Georgia on a map, these elections serve as a lesson in how Russia employs hybrid warfare (an effort to shape the global environment primarily through information manipulation) to undermine U.S. security and advance Russia’s interests globally.
Moldovan Election
On October 20, 2024, the people of Moldova took a stand against Russian interference in their country, voting to permanently embed European integration in the constitution. Additionally, President Maya Sandu, Moldova’s pro-EU leader, was re-elected to a second term in a run-off election held on November 3. The votes for both European integration and for a Sandu second term were hardly won by a wide margin. Despite early polling indicating a roughly four to five percent advantage for the pro-EU vote, the final tally was a mere 50.46 percent in favor. In the first round, Sandu fell short of the 50 percent needed to win outright, receiving only 42.45 percent of the vote, as her rival, Alexandr Stoianoglo, backed by the pro-Russian Party of Socialists, received approximately 25 percent of the vote. In the second round, Sandu received approximately 55 percent of the vote, ultimately beating out Stoianoglo. A large part of the pro-EU victory in both the referendum and the presidential election was thanks to the Moldovan diaspora, living largely in Western Europe, the United States, and Canada. In each election, before the Moldovan diaspora vote was fully counted, it briefly seemed that the country would swing away from the West.
Moldovan officials have highlighted the alarming and heavy-handed role that Russia played in this election through vote buying and an aggressive disinformation campaign, pointing to this involvement as the cause of the near failure of the European integration project. These reports are backed by Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE) election observations and Freedom House preelection assessments. This is not the first time the country has faced such pressures from Moscow.
