TERRORISMIslamic State Is Evolving, but Has the World Taken Its Eyes Off the Ball?
US-backed forces declared in 2019 that the Islamic State (IS) group had been destroyed. But as the past few years have shown, that only marked the end of its quasi-state that controlled territory in Iraq and Syria — not the threat it continues to present.
US-backed forces declared in 2019 that the Islamic State (IS) group had been destroyed. But as the past few years have shown, that only marked the end of its quasi-state that controlled territory in Iraq and Syria — not the threat it continues to present.
The extremist group is demonstrating resilience and experiencing a resurgence in other parts of the world — and its operational capabilities are evolving.
Since January 2024, IS has claimed a series of high-profile attacks across the world, from Iran and Russia to Germany and the United States.
“IS remains a persistent global security threat and the deadliest terrorist organization in the world,” Adrian Shtuni, a security specialist and head of the Washington-based Shtuni Consulting, told RFE/RL.
“Now the organization relies primarily on a dynamic network of regional affiliates who operate independently,” he said.
What Is the Current State Of IS?
The vision and aspirations of IS have not changed, but since its territorial defeat in 2019, the extremist group has undergone a radical structural and operational evolution, analysts say.
A diversified array of IS branches has emerged in recent years throughout the world, particularly in regions where there is little ability to counter extremism.
Colin Clarke, director of policy and research at the New York-based Soufan Group consultancy, said IS has become a group for which the sum of its parts is greater than the whole.
“IS might be even more challenging as a decentralized organization than it was as a proto-state. When it was running a proto-state, it was a big target,” Clarke told RFE/RL.
IS and its affiliates have made their presence felt over the past year with deadly attacks around the world.
In January 2024, twin suicide bombings in the southern Iranian city of Kerman killed around 100 people.
Two months later, four attackers targeted the Crocus City Hall concert venue outside Moscow, killing 145 people in a mass shooting, stabbing, and arson attack.
In August, a suicide bombing killed at least 20 people in the Somali capital, Mogadishu. Days later, an IS member stabbed several people at a festival in Solingen, Germany, killing three people.
The group’s reach extends as far as the United States. On January 1, an IS-inspired assailant drove a truck into a crowd of New Year’s revelers in New Orleans, killing 14 people and injuring dozens more. The attacker, Texas-born former US Army veteran Shamsud-Din Jabbar, was killed by police.
