TERRORISMWhat We’ve Learnt About Lone-Actor Terrorism Over the Years Could Help Us Prevent Future Attacks
Politically motivated attacks, carried out by lone individuals lacking direct affiliation with any terrorist group, have become more common in Europe during the last few decades. Lone-actor attacks are difficult to prevent precisely because they are not a systemic threat in the way that coordinated, group-based terrorism can be. Its danger lies in isolated bursts of violence rather than in sustained campaigns. But there are patterns worth following that could help prevent future incidents.
Politically motivated attacks, carried out by lone individuals lacking direct affiliation with any terrorist group, have become more common in Europe during the last few decades.
One of the most common and devastating forms of lone-actor violence involves driving into crowds. In 2016, Mohamed Lahouaiej-Bouhlel used this method to kill 86 people in Nice. In 2011, Anders Breivik detonated a bomb in central Oslo before carrying out a mass shooting on the island of Utøya, leaving 77 dead. Not all lone-actor attacks are as deadly or indiscriminate as these. Some target specific people, as seen in the assassinations of German politicianWalter Lübcke in 2019 and British MP David Amess in 2021.
Lone-actor terrorism – also known as lone-wolf terrorism – poses a unique challenge for European states. Traditional counterterrorism tools designed for organized groups like al-Qaeda, Islamic State, or Eta are far less effective against people acting alone. While lone-actor plots are typically less complex, they can still cause significant harm.
We’ve also seen that lone-actor attacks can trigger far-reaching ripple effects. The resulting public outrage can intensify debates on contentious issues like immigration, and ultimately boost support for extremist parties.
Copycat or reactionary attacks are another consequence of lone-actor terrorism. A striking example is the mass shootings carried out by Brenton Tarrant in New Zealand in 2019. He cited the actions of Breivik and others as direct inspiration. According to Tarrant’s own manifesto, a key trigger for his radicalisation was the 2017 Islamist attack in Stockholm, where Rakhmat Akilov, an asylum seeker from Uzbekistan, drove a truck into a crowd, killing five people, including an 11-year-old child.
Why Lone-Actor Attacks Are So Difficult to Prevent
Because lone actors operate independently and rarely communicate their intentions, their identities often remain unknown until after an attack. Their goals and ideologies are frequently ambiguous, making it hard to predict behavior or select likely targets. Even correctly identifying an incident as lone-actor terrorism can be challenging.
The case of Axel Rudakubana illustrates this difficulty. Rudakubana killed three young girls in Southport, northern England, in 2024 after breaking into their Taylor Swift-themed dance workshop. Despite the discovery of an Al-Qaeda training manual in his possession, prosecutors found no substantial evidence of political motivation and labelled the incident a “mass killing” rather than terrorism.
