Trump’s Iran Deal Withdrawal Comes Back to Haunt Him | The West Can Re-arm without Re-industrializing | Rwanda, Congo Sign Historic Peace Deal | How to Fix the Cracks in the Nuclear Dam, and more

Intelligence, Strategy, and the Israeli-Iranian War  (Joshua Rovner, War on the Rocks)
States use intelligence to inform their strategic decisions — and to influence their friends. Israel has a long history of passing secret intelligence to the United States in order to win its support, and according to multiple reports, it is trying again. The White House is more likely to join the war against Iran if it accepts Israeli intelligence at face value. But in doing so, it will sacrifice its strategic flexibility and risk losing diplomatic leverage. For a president who cherishes bargaining power, this would be a grave mistake.

Conspiracy, Cock-Up or Solution? The Gaza Aid Foundation  (Economist)
If it survives it will be an instrument of power in the strip.

CHINA WATCH

A Distracted Washington Is a Win for Beijing  (James Palmer, Foreign Policy)
China is happy to step back from the Middle East so that it can challenge the United States where it counts.

Taiwan Is Rushing to Make Its Own Drones Before It’s Too Late  (Justin Ling, Wired)
Unmanned vehicles are increasingly becoming essential weapons of war. But with a potential conflict with China looming large, Taiwan is scrambling to build a domestic drone industry from scratch.

THE LONG VIEW

The War in Ukraine Shows the West Can Re-arm without Re-industrializing  (Economist)
Industrial capacity in peacetime is no longer necessary for success during war

How Strongmen Mastered the Art of Dividing Europe  (Economist)
Soft-power Europe is often bested by hard-nosed autocrats.

The Critical Mineral Up and Downstream: Drivers and Stabilizers of US Foreign Policy  (Caleb Slayton, National Interest)
Critical minerals will continue to be drivers and stabilizers of US foreign policy for the foreseeable future.

Africa’s Scary New Age of High-Tech Warfare  (Economist)
The proliferation of new technology could make conflicts even longer and deadlier

The Bombing of Iran May Teach an Unwelcome Lesson on Nuclear Weapons  (Mark Landler, New York Times)
Will America’s pre-emptive strike discourage other countries from pursuing a weapon — or just the opposite?

How to Fix the Cracks in the Nuclear Dam  (Adam Thomson, Foreign Policy)
The crisis in the Middle East shows why the world must repair Trump’s damage to the nonproliferation landscape.

MORE PICKS

Rwanda, Congo Sign Historic Peace Deal  (Alexandra Sharp, Foreign Policy)
Decades of fighting have led to what the United Nations has called “one of the most protracted, complex, serious humanitarian crises on Earth.”

Trump Urges Congress to ‘Kill’ Voice of America as Its Leader Defends Gutting It.  (Minho Kim and Megan Mineiro, New York Times)
Kari Lake, the close Trump ally and senior adviser to the U.S. Agency for Global Media, urged Congress on Wednesday to gut the Voice of America and other federally funded news organizations she oversees, as lawmakers of both parties expressed concern about the move.
In a hearing on Capitol Hill that grew testy at times, Ms. Lake defended proposed cuts to the global news organizations, while Democrats and some Republicans warned that they could make it impossible for the United States to disseminate information to countries with limited press freedoms, such as Iran, China and Russia.
“What is going out on V.O.A. airwaves — it’s outrageous, and it has to stop,” she told the House Foreign Affairs Committee. She called independent reporting from international news agencies funded by the government “corrupt” and “biased,” and made clear that President Trump’s goal was not to overhaul but to shut down the global media agency, which she called “a rotten piece of fish.”

Promise of Victory Over H.I.V. Fades as U.S. Withdraws Support  (Stephanie Nolen, New York Times)
A new drug that gives almost complete protection against the virus was to be administered across Africa this year. Now, much of the funding for that effort is gone.

Europe’s Growing Fear: How Trump Might Use U.S. Tech Dominance Against It  (Adam Satariano and Jeanna Smialek, New York Times)
To comply with a Trump executive order, Microsoft recently helped suspend the email account of an International Criminal Court prosecutor in the Netherlands who was investigating Israel for war crimes.