AnalysisRussia continues go-slow policy on Iran's Bushehr reactor

There are many reasons to criticize Russia and the high-handed manner in which Vladimir Putin treats political opposition (just see the spat between the United Kingdom and Russia over last year’s radioactive poisoning in London of a Russian critic of the Putin government). In one important area, though, Russia appears to behave responsibly — even though it may give the appearances of doing the opposite. Russia gives the impression of dragging its feet on the question of UN sanctions on Iran for the latter’s nuclear weapons-related activities. Since Russia is the contractor building the large nuclear reactor in Bushehr, many accuse it of putting its commercial interests ahead of international security. If you examine Russian behavior more closely, though, an interesting pattern emerges: While Western European countries talk about sanctions and vote for the in the UN Security Council, most of the Iranian foreign trade is done through companies from the very same countries. Russia nominally opposes stiff sanctions and tries to weaken sanctions which are imposed on Iran, but it has been a model of what we should call “constructive foot dragging” when it comes to completing its contractual obligations to Iran on the Busher nuclear reactor.

The latest evidence is an announcement by a Russian subcontractor that the Bushehr reactor cannot be completed by the fall of 2007 as suggested by Iranian authorities and will only be commissioned a year later. Russia is building the $1-billion facility, Iran’s first nuclear power plant, in the south of the country in accordance with a 1995 contract, and under UN supervision as Iran is under international scrutiny over its compliance with the nuclear non-proliferation regime. At the same time, two things are clear: The Bushehr nuclear reactor has nothing to do with research (it is way to big and expensive for that), and nothing to do with power generation (it is way too small for that). Its size — about 40 MGw — is just the size needed to produce enough fissile material for nuclear weapons, though. The Russians know that, too, and over the past two or three years have given many indications that they are having second thoughts about the whole project, especially in light of Iran’s belligerent international stance. “Today we can say with all certainty that it would be unrealistic to put Bushehr into operation this fall,” Ivan Istomin, the head of the Energoprogress company, said dismissing a statement made earlier this month by Iran’s Mahmoud Jafari, co-chairing the project, that the plant could be ready in three or four months. “Even if Russia delivers the first portion of nuclear fuel to Bushehr tomorrow, it would be impossible to commission the facility in six months,” Istomin said.

The project came under threat in February after Russia complained about shortfalls in funding. Moscow said Tehran had only covered 60 percent of the required funding by the fourth quarter of 2006, and had completely stopped payments in mid-January. Iran denied any funding problems and accused Russia of delays. Istomin said his company could not assemble the key operating equipment for the plant due to the failure by third countries to supply the necessary components, and cited lack of Iran’s funding as one of the reasons. “Suppliers no longer have confidence in the Bushehr project,” he said. The official said it would take six months to restore trust and agree on new supplies. “The real deadline for the physical launch of the power unit will therefore be put off until the fall of 2008,” he said.

Smart money says that in the summer of 2008, Istomin will step in front of the cameras to say that unforessen problems with unnamed suppliers now make the fall of 2009 a more likely date for the reactor becoming operational.