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Breaking news
In the heaviest blow yet to the Assad regime, a bomb placed inside the fortress-like National Security headquarters in Damascus earlier today killed the three top commanders of the regime’s anti-insurgency effort: Defense Minster Dawoud Rajha; Deputy Defense Minister (and Assad’s brother-in-law) Assef Shawkat; and Hassan Turkmani, a former defense minister who was serving as head of the regime’s central command unit for crisis management a secure room; the bomb was placed in the secure room, where a meeting of the central command unit for crisis management was taking place, by a bodyguard assigned to Assad’s inner circle; the assassination, and the way it was carried out, demonstrate daring, operational competence, and excellent intelligence; the operation reflects, more generally, a noticeable increase in the lethality and effectiveness of the rebel forces, and the growing vulnerability of the regime
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Terrorism
The U.S. House of Representative yesterday voted to designate the Haqqani Network as Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO); the network has been supported and armed by Pakistan, which uses the Haqqanis to attack U.S. and coalition soldiers, aid the Taliban, destabilize the Karzai government, and frustrate U.S. Afghan strategy; if the Senate approves the House bill, this would mean designating the Pakistani government, or at least some of its major agencies, as supporters of terrorism, making it legally difficult for the United States to continue and send billions of dollars in military and civilian aid to Pakistan
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Quick take // By Ben Frankel
With the quickening pace of preparations for a military intervention to remove an al Qaeda-affiliated Islamist group from a break-away region of Mali, and disrupt this group’s plan to turn the region into what African leaders call “Africanistan,” the leaders of the MNLA, the Tuareg movement which fought for the independence of the region, said the MNLA would not participate in the operation against the Islamists unless it receives guarantees from outside powers that the goal of the operation will not be to re-unify Mali; the cause of Tuareg independence never had much support among the Tuareg people, and was resolutely opposed by neighboring states; the MNLA refusal to help in removing the Islamists from Azawad all but guarantees that the dream of Tuareg independence will remain just that – a dream
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Syria update
A few more Syrian generals defected to Turkey this weekend; the latest defections indicate a growing problem for the regime, as those defecting come from parts of the military where loyalty to the Assad family was key to promotion; among the defectors were two Alawite generals who were operations commanders of the Alawite Shabiha militia, one of the military units closest to Assad, a third general, a Sunni, headed the Syrian chemical warfare authority until 2008; last Thursday, Syria began to move chemical munitions from storage facilities to areas closer to the fighting; the United States informed Syria that Washington would view with extreme concern the removal from storage of any more chemical weapons
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Islam
Historically, domestic political divisions within Muslim politics have fallen between secular elite and fundamental Islamic elite factions, with both groups laying claims to anti-American grievances; that competition is most intense not in the most deeply observant Islamic countries, but rather in countries where divisions between secular and religious factions are sharpest; in those countries, competition between political forces — not religious fundamentalism — appears to spark the greatest anti-American sentiment
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Iran
A Pentagon report submitted to Congress on 29 June says Iran continues to make large strides in virtually all conventional, unconventional, and nuclear categories; the report focused most extensively on Iran’s inventory of ballistic missiles, and warned that Iran may be able to test-fly an inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM), capable of striking American soil, within three years’ time; Iran also continues to supply men, money, training, and even sophisticated weapons systems to some of the world’s best-known terror groups
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Radiation detection
Common radioactive sources emit gamma rays while nuclear bomb material emits both gamma rays and neutrons; because neutrons and gamma rays are electrically neutral, it is difficult to ascertain properties such as the direction of origin or energy level of the radioactive source; University of New Hampshire scientists are re-engineering instruments originally built for detecting radiation in space for homeland security purposes
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Syria
Nawaf Fares, Syria’s ambassador to Iraq, has defected and joined the anti-Assad forces; Fares is also the chief of the Sunni tribe Uqaydat, which controls long stretches of the border area between Syria and Iraq; since 1970, one of the central motifs of the Assad regime – father and son – has been an emphasis on cohesion among the Syrian people in an effort to unify the diverse Syrian society; the regime has enjoyed the support of Alawites, Druze, Christians, and moderate Sunnis; the defection of a second leading Sunni supporter of the regime in as many weeks — Brig. Gen. Manaf Tlas defected last week – is one more indication that Syrian society is fracturing along ethnic and religious lines
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Terrorism
The UN Conference of the Arms Trade Treaty is tasked with drafting an international treaty aimed at stopping arms proliferation to terrorist groups and rogue states; the UN appoints Iran to be one of the vice presidents of the committee; the UN Watch watchdog groups says that appointing Iran to oversee the drafting of a treaty dealing with sending arms to terrorists “is like choosing Bernie Madoff to police fraud on the stock market”
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Islamist extremists
A common belief in the West is that al Qaeda wishes to impose Islam everywhere; this might be a pipe dream for the group, but a new study of their use of religious texts suggests that Islamists’ goals are much more modest
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Analysis
In a report last week, Al Jazeera claimed that the cause of Yasser Arafat death in 2004 was poisoning by the radioactive substance polonium-210, and that Swiss scientists found high concentrations of polonium in the cloths Arafat wore in his last days; experts say that the laws of physics make this theory impossible: Polonium-210 has a half-life of 138 days, meaning that half of the substance decays roughly every four-and-a-half months; since only miniscule amounts of the substance would suffice to kill someone, it is not possible that eight years after Arafat’s death, such high levels of the material would still be found in his belongings; put another way: for polonium-210 to be discovered today in Arafat’s clothing at such high levels would mean that such large quantities of the material had to be used – unnecessarily — eight years ago, that not only Arafat, but his entourage and many of the doctors, nurses, and patients at the Hôpital d’instruction des armées Percy where he was treated would be dead as well of radiation poisoning
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Domestic terrorism
A report of the 2009 Fort Hood shooting will recommend eighteen specific changes which will make the FBI more likely to detect such insider threats earlier; the report, written by William Webster, the former director of the FBI, will be on the desk of Robert Mueller, the current FBI director, next week; the report’s authors focused on the FBI and the agency’s more than a hundred Joint Terrorism Task Forces (JTTFs) and how they handled and acted on counterterrorism intelligence before and after the shootings … and the FBI’s remedial measures in the aftermath of Fort Hood
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Poisoning
When Yasser Arafat was taken seriously ill in October 2004, and then died in a Paris hospital the next month, many Palestinians charged that he was poisoned by the Israeli Mossad; his widow refused to permit an autopsy, so the poisoning theory could never be proved; now, Swiss scientists who examined items of clothing Arafat wore in his last days say these items contain a significant – and highly unusual – levels of polonium-210, a toxic radioactive material; the Russian secret service used polonium in 2006 to kill Alexander V. Litvinenko, a former KGB agent who became a critic of Putin’s Russian government; Arafat’s widow and the Palestinian Authority call for Arafat body to be exhumed to determine whether or not he was poisoned
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Media
A new study finds that exposure to media coverage of terrorist missile attacks increases pain levels in people already suffering from chronic pain
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Foreign affairs
The al Qaeda-affiliate Ansar Dine extended its control of Azawad, the Mali break-away region, by wresting control of the city of Gao from rival Tuareg forces; Mali’s neighbors announce that they have troop commitments from three west African countries for a military operation against Azawad Islamists; an advance party of European military and civilian security advisors is already operating in northern Niger in preparation for the military campaign, and behind-the-scenes discussions at the Security Council will soon yield a UN resolution authorizing the African Union to sent military forces to Azawad to oust the Islamists and reunify Mali
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Quick takes // By Ben Frankel
Earlier this week, at a UN forum on the global drug trade, Iran’s vice president Mohammad-Reza Rahimi delivered a speech which the New York Times described as “baldly anti-Semitic”; Rahmini charged that the Jews, among other things, are responsible for, and are in firm control of, the global drug trade, and that gynecologists are killing black babies on the orders of Jews; law professors Alan Dershowitz and Irwin Cotler argue that the openly anti-Semitic pronouncements by Iran’s leaders, and the repeated threats they make against the Jewish people, merit bringing Iran’s leaders before the International Criminal Court to face charges of incitement to genocide
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Domestic radicalization
The House Committee on Homeland Security held a series of hearings on Islamic radicalization in the United States, and last week issued a report based on the hearings; one section deals with the insider threat Islamic radicals pose for military communities; the committee’s majority says that one reason the U.S. military is not more effective in dealing with this insider threat is that the approach to the problem is governed by political correctness
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Terrorism
Three previous Olympiads — Munich 1972, Atlanta 1996, Athens 2004 — were targets of terrorists or extremists; there is no specific information to indicate that terrorists have targeted the forthcoming London games, but a terrorism experts says the 2012 Summer Games offer terrorists an attractive target
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Bioterror
Congress was unsatisfied with a 2010 DHS risk-assessment study of the proposed National Bio- and Agro-Defense Facility (NBAF) in Manhattan, Kansas, and asked for a new study of the risks, and an evaluation of the new study by the National Research Council; the evaluation says that some of the risk reduction noted in the new DHS risk assessment may be explained by improvements to the latest design plans for the facility, but that despite these improvements, the updated DHS assessment underestimates the risk of an accidental pathogen release and inadequately characterizes the uncertainties in those risks
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Terrorism
The 2012 Eurocup soccer competition is underway in Poland and Ukraine, and the 2012 Summer Olympic Games in London will open in a few weeks; in South Africa, the trial begins of a white supremacist who was hoping to start a race war in South Africa by disrupting the 2012 World Cup games which were held in that country: his plot included firing mortars into soccer stadiums during games, when the stadiums were filled to capacity with cheering spectators; he also planned to fire mortars into black neighborhoods in cities where the games were held
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More headlines
The long view
Patriots’ Day: How Far-Right Groups Hijack History and Patriotic Symbols to Advance Their Cause, According to an Expert on Extremism
Extremist groups have attempted to change the meaning of freedom and liberty embedded in Patriots’ Day — a commemoration of the battles of Lexington and Concord – to serve their far-right rhetoric, recruitment, and radicalization. Understanding how patriotic symbols can be exploited offers important insights into how historical narratives may be manipulated, potentially leading to harmful consequences in American society.