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RADICALIZATION
As misinformation and radicalization rise, it’s tempting to look for something to blame: the internet, social media personalities, sensationalized political campaigns, religion, or conspiracy theories. Researchers found that radicalization is a process of increasingly intense stages, and only a small number of people progress to the point where they commit violent acts. The misinformation radicalization process is a pathway driven by human emotions rather than the information itself – and this understanding may be a first step in finding solutions.
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EXTREMISM
Each year, people in the United States are killed by individuals with ties to extreme movements and ideologies. In recent years, extremists from the far right (such as white nationalists or sovereign citizens), the far left (such as Black nationalists or anarchists), Islamist extremist movements, and other, more obscure causes or groups have all committed murders in the United States.
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MARITIME SECURITY
The United States is a maritime nation surrounded by 95,000 miles of shoreline. Changes in economics, geopolitics, society, demography, or other factors, pose varied and evolving threats to the country’s maritime space – its waterways, ports of entry, and coastline borders.
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ARGUMENT: SEEDS OF SURPRISE
There were several reasons for Israel’s intelligence and operational failures on 7 October. But the context within which these failures occurred, what Ariel Levite calls “the intelligence-policy nexus,” was created by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. For over a decade, he helped strengthen Hamas as part of his effort to prevent the emergence of a moderate and pragmatic Palestinian leadership. And, throughout 2023, he caused deep and bitter divisions in Israeli society and military by pursuing a regime-change legislative agenda aiming to hollow out Israel’s democracy. He was repeatedly warned by Israel’s military and intelligence leaders that both policies were weakening Israel and the IDF and making Israel more vulnerable to attack, but he rejected these warnings.
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THE IRAN CHALLENGE
Iran’s so-called axis of resistance is a loose network of proxies, Tehran-backed militant groups, and an allied state actor. The network is a key element of Tehran’s strategy of deterrence against perceived threats from the United States, regional rivals, and primarily Israel.
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ARGUMENT: JIHADIST TERRORISM THREAT
The Hamas attack on Oct. 7, 2023, and the Israeli response have had dangerous echoes around the world. Al-Qaeda, the Islamic State, and unaffiliated terrorists have seized on the attacks in their propaganda and to conduct, or attempt to conduct, attacks.
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ARGUMENT: HAMAS (RE)-FILLS GAZA VACUUM
Israel’s lack of coherence with regard to the future administrative governing of the Gaza Strip, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s refusal to articulate a “day after” vision for Gaza – he is worried that the far-right elements in his coalition would bolt if he allowed the Palestinian Authority to govern Gaza – have resulted in Hamas’s assuming, again, the role of governing Gaza. Rob Geist Pinfold writes that in the absence of any clear political vision for capitalizing on its military successes, Israel is allowing Hamas, which is the only party that is willing and able to provide these essential services, to assume many of its pre-7 October responsibilities.
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EXTREMISM
The U.S. imposes sanctions on individuals, groups, and countries deemed to be a threat to national security. Elon Musk’s X appears to be selling premium service to some of them. An investigation identified more than a dozen X accounts for U.S.-sanctioned entities that had a blue checkmark, which requires the purchase of a premium subscription. Along with the checkmarks, which are intended to confer legitimacy, X promises a variety of perks for premium accounts, including the ability to post longer text and videos and greater visibility for some posts.
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MIGRANTS & TERRORISM
The headlines are attention-grabbing, but reality is more mundane: Most people on the terror watchlist are not terrorists. The terror watchlist contains known terrorists, but also people who engaged in conduct related to terrorism, such as fund raising. Individuals on the watchlist who crossed the border illegally have never committed an attack domestically, let alone killed or injured anyone in such an attack. We should be concerned about people on the terrorist watchlist, but we should not immediately assume that they are terrorists planning a domestic attack.
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BIORISKS
Why is attribution of BW use important? During a biological incident, including BW use, what evidence might provide valuable information to facilitate attribution? What is the state of the science for determining the origin of a biological incident, including BW use? What capabilities does DoD possess or could it develop to facilitate attribution of BW use?
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ONLINE TERROR CONTENT
This vast ocean of online material needs to be constantly monitored for harmful or illegal content, like promoting terrorism and violence. The sheer volume of content means that it’s not possible for people to inspect and check all of it manually, which is why automated tools, including artificial intelligence (AI), are essential. But such tools also have their limitations.
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MIDDLE EAST
Iran’s “forward defense” strategy – focused on addressing threats externally before they become ones within its borders – would suggest that Iran will continue to support proxies through weaponry, funding and tactical knowledge to reduce the influence and legitimacy of the U.S. and its allies in the region. This underscores the delicate balance required in responding to Iranian-backed aggression – aiming to safeguard U.S. interests while preventing an escalation into a wider regional confrontation.
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EXTREMISM
Germany is considering banning Austria’s far-right extremist Martin Sellner from entering the country. Such a move is not unprecedented, but the legal hurdles in the EU are high.
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EXTREMISM
Alternative for Germany (AfD) has been playing down its involvement in a meeting of far-right extremists but a new investigative report claims yet another man with close ties to party boss Alice Weidel was in attendance.
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TERRORISM
For Germany, the reemergence of more violence orientated left-wing extremist actors has diversified the threat posed by non-state actors even further. Violent left-wing extremism is also of growing concern across Europe. While left-wing violent extremism does not currently represent as acute a threat as currently manifested by jihadist and right-wing terrorist attacks, the recent concerning trend among German left-wing extremists is toward greater violence and transnationalism.
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SUPPLY-CHAIN SECURITY
Due to Houthi attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea, worldwide shipping is in trouble and the global supply chain faltering. These technologies can help.
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SUPPLY-CHAIN SECURITY
While the Huthis are using an arsenal of Iranian weapons to wreak havoc in the Red Sea and are considered part of Tehran’s “axis of resistance,” the Yemen-based rebel group does not necessarily follow Iran’s commands.
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TERRORISM
The FBI credits its Terror Watchlist with keeping the country safe, but critics point to the experience of thousands of innocent American Muslims who were swept up by a screening system, and then found themselves trapped in a Kafkaesque nightmare as they tried to clear their names. The watchlist currently contains nearly two million names, of which about 15,000 are U.S. citizens and permanent residents.
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GAZA WAR
Planning for the ‘Day After’: After three months of this war Israel has weakened Hamas but not eliminated it, and cannot promise that elimination can be achieved quickly, if at all. The Israeli government is close to breaking point and perhaps only if it breaks will there be an opportunity for a serious consideration of options for addressing the Palestinian issue. There are, however, reasons why this issue has proved to be intractable in the past.
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MARITIME SECURITY
Houthi attacks against commercial ships in the Red Sea have upended global shipping. The disruptions could soon ripple through the global economy.
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More headlines
The long view
Southport Attacks: Why the U.K. Needs a Unified Approach to All Violent Attacks on the Public
The conviction of Axel Rudakubana for the murder of three young girls in Southport has prompted many questions about how the UK handles violence without a clear ideological motive. This case has also shown up the confusion in this area, and made clear the need for a basic reframing of how we understand murderous violence against the public today.
Mis- and Disinformation Trends and Tactics to Watch in 2025
Predicting how extremists may weaponize false narratives requires an understanding of the strategies that allow them to spread most effectively.
Evidence-Based Solutions to Protect Against Mass Attacks
Mass attacks like the New Year’s Day incident in New Orleans stir public emotion and have tragic consequences. While the investigations into this case will take time, we know from our work that there are things law enforcement and the public can do to mitigate and perhaps stop mass casualty events.