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From Wadham to GCHQ and Back: Robert Hannigan on Cybercrime, Spying and the AI Tsunami Coming Our Way
Is the much-vaunted cyber-Armageddon likely or even possible? One experts says that “‘State cyber threats do get overplayed. They can’t do everything and countries over-estimate their cyber capabilities – just as they over estimate their military capability.” The expert insists, however, that “The challenges are ‘moving very fast’, as potential attackers learn fast.”
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Significant Intelligence Failures by FBI, DHS in Lead-Up to January 6th Capitol Attack
A Senate panel released a new report detailing the results of an investigation examining intelligence failures by the FBI and DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis (I&A) in the lead-up to the attack on the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021. The investigation found that intelligence failures and operational missteps by the FBI and DHS I&A contributed to the security planning failures that left frontline officers unprepared for the violent mob that breached the Capitol and disrupted the peaceful transfer of power.
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Planned in Plain Sight
Beginning in December 2020, the FBI and DHS I&A were receiving increasingly detailed, and worrisome, information – from informers, encrypted chat rooms, and other sources — that Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, and other far-right violent extremist groups supporting then-President Donald Trump were planning attacks on the Capitol and other federal buildings in an attempt to prevent the peaceful transition of power to the winner of the November election, Joe Biden. Despite the dire nature of the information, the FBI and I&A failed to issue sufficient warnings to the Capitol police, DC police, and other frontline personnel based on, and reflecting, the available intelligence indicating January 6th might turn violent.
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Facing Charges, Some Goyim Defense League Extremists Embrace “Sovereign Citizen” Tactics
As they rack up littering charges for distributing propaganda, some individuals associated with the antisemitic and extremist Goyim Defense League (GDL)—including leader Jon Minadeo—have adopted pseudo-legal “sovereign citizen” tactics in a misguided attempt to escape legal troubles.
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New York’s Climate Buyout Plans Must Put Communities First: Experts
In 2022, New York State passed the Clean Water, Clean Air and Green Jobs Environmental Bond Act. Among its many objectives, the act promises to invest more than a billion dollars toward flood protection across the state — including through voluntary private property buyouts. What should a buyout program look like? Designing an equitable buyout program is more complicated than it may seem.
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Climate Change Has Sent Temperatures Soaring in Texas
Hotter days and nights. More record highs. Climate change has shifted the entire range of Texas heat upwards. Heat is one of the deadliest consequences of climate change. It’s already the most dangerous type of weather, typically killing more people annually than hurricanes, tornadoes or flooding.
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That Was the Coup That Was
This was a mutiny more than a coup or an insurrection, but possibly to Prigozhin’s surprise and certainly Putin’s alarm, it almost turned into something more. Putin faces a cruel dilemma: He cares about his survival, whether from Covid or coups. The unintended consequences of the Ukraine war are now threatening his regime. Any suggestion that he wants to get out of the war will aggravate the image of weakness; sticking with the war regardless of losses will aggravate his actual weaknesses.
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Two Days in June: Echoes of the Past
The Prigozhin affair is reminiscent of events three decades ago. Thirty years ago, disgruntled members of the Russian military, intelligence services, and police organizations attempted to topple Mikhail Gorbachev, the president of the Soviet Union, and Boris Yeltsin, who was the president of the Russian Federation. The attempted coup lasted three days, from 19 to 22 August 1991.
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China-Based Chemical Manufacturing Companies Charged, Executives Arrested in Fentanyl Manufacturing
DOJ announced the arrest of two individuals and the unsealing of three indictments in the Southern and Eastern Districts of New York charging China-based companies and their employees with crimes related to fentanyl production, distribution, and sales resulting from precursor chemicals.
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Lessons from Other Democracies: Ideas for Combatting Mistrust and Polarization in US Elections
There remains a crisis of confidence in U.S. elections, as many Americans harbor mistaken beliefs about the outcome of the 2020 elections and the way elections are run. “Virulent polarization and the trust-destroying propagation of election related mis- and disinformation remain acute threats to American democracy,” says the co-author of a new report. The report pulls lessons from six countries and recommends several solutions the United States can implement to ensure free and fair elections.
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No Simple Answer for Why People Believe in Conspiracy Theories
The moon landing was faked. 9/11 was an inside job. Mass shootings like Sandy Hook were “false flags.” Top Democrats are behind a child sex ring. COVID-19 as population control. Area 51 is home to lots of aliens. Trump had the 2020 election stolen from him. Psychologists say that people endorse conspiracy theories due to complex combination of personality traits and motivations, including relying strongly on their intuition, feeling a sense of antagonism and superiority toward others, and perceiving threats in their environment.
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Declassified U.S. Intelligence Answers Few Questions on Origins of COVID-19
On Friday, the U.S. intelligence community released declassified U.S. intelligence on the origins of the coronavirus pandemic, following a March executive order signed by President Joe Biden. The report said that despite concerns about biosafety measures at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), and despite its history of work with coronaviruses, there is no intelligence that indicates COVID-19 was present in the lab before the outbreak.
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Can Wagner Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin Challenge Putin?
The owner of the Wagner private military contractor and leader of a massive internet troll farm has called for an armed rebellion to oust Russia’s defense minister. But is he a threat to Russian President Vladimir Putin?
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Supreme Court Rejects Texas Effort to Force Biden Administration to Change Deportation Policy
Texas and Louisiana sued after the Biden administration told immigration agents to focus on deporting undocumented immigrants who are convicted of felonies or pose a risk to public safety. The Supreme Court said states didn’t have any standing to sue.
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U.S. Policymakers Acting to Bolster Drug Supply Chains Amid Critical Shortages
Alarmed by persistent shortages of critically important drugs such as cancer medications, Adderall, and antibiotics, U.S. policymakers are taking steps to shore up the country’s pharmaceutical supply chains. The American Society of Health-System Pharmacists has more than 900 drug and dose shortages on its drug shortage list, and the FDA lists more than 200. The number and length of supply disruptions has grown over the last 10 years.
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More headlines
The long view
Factories First: Winning the Drone War Before It Starts
Wars are won by factories before they are won on the battlefield,Martin C. Feldmann writes, noting that the United States lacks the manufacturing depth for the coming drone age. Rectifying this situation “will take far more than procurement tweaks,” Feldmann writes. “It demands a national-level, wartime-scale industrial mobilization.”
No Nation Is an Island: The Dangers of Modern U.S. Isolationism
The resurgence of isolationist sentiment in American politics is understandable but misguided. While the desire to refocus on domestic renewal is justified, retreating from the world will not bring the security, prosperity, or sovereignty that its proponents promise. On the contrary, it invites instability, diminishes U.S. influence, and erodes the democratic order the U.S. helped forge.
Fragmented by Design: USAID’s Dismantling and the Future of American Foreign Aid
The Trump administration launched an aggressive restructuring of U.S. foreign aid, effectively dismantling the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The humanitarian and geopolitical fallout of the demise of USAID includes shuttered clinics, destroyed food aid, and China’s growing influence in the global south. This new era of American soft power will determine how, and whether, the U.S. continues to lead in global development.
Water Wars: A Historic Agreement Between Mexico and US Is Ramping Up Border Tension
By Natasha Lindstaedt
As climate change drives rising temperatures and changes in rainfall, Mexico and the US are in the middle of a conflict over water, putting an additional strain on their relationship. Partly due to constant droughts, Mexico has struggled to maintain its water deliveries for much of the last 25 years, deliveries to which it is obligated by a 1944 water-sharing agreement between the two countries.
How Disastrous Was the Trump-Putin Meeting?
In Alaska, Trump got played by Putin. Therefore, Steven Pifer writes, the European leaders and Zelensky have to “diplomatically offer suggestions to walk Trump back from a position that he does not appear to understand would be bad for Ukraine, bad for Europe, and bad for American interests. And they have to do so without setting off an explosion that could disrupt U.S.-Ukrainian and U.S.-European relations—all to the delight of Putin and the Kremlin.”
How Male Grievance Fuels Radicalization and Extremist Violence
By Haily Tran
Social extremism is evolving in reach and form. While traditional racial supremacy ideologies remain, contemporary movements are now often fueled by something more personal and emotionally resonant: male grievance.