• History Never Ended: Ukraine and the Risk of Nuclear Escalation

    Putin has issued implicit and explicit nuclear threats, and has also raised the specter of chemical weapons. Together, these threats imply that Putin may seek deliberate escalation in order to limit NATO’s options. Putin’s assumption may be that the West won’t be prepared to risk escalation to a strategic nuclear exchange and will back down even in the face of a demonstrative use of a low-yield nuclear weapon, or large-scale use of chemical weapons against urban areas in Ukraine.

  • The Smaller Bombs That Could Turn Ukraine into a Nuclear War Zone

    The nuclear weapons in the arsenals of Russia and NATO countries have much smaller yields than the large bombs built during the Cold War. These warheads are even smaller than the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. William Broad writes that it is this much lower yield which makes their use more thinkable.

  • The False Promise of Arming Insurgents: America’s Spotty Record Warrants Caution in Ukraine

    Covertly coming to the aid of Ukrainian insurgents may appear to be the prudent choice for U.S. policymakers facing an array of unattractive options, but history suggests that this would be a risky gamble. The United States has a “remarkably poor” record for covertly backing insurgencies: “of 35 U.S. attempts to covertly arm foreign dissidents during the Cold War, only four succeeded in bringing U.S. allies to power,” Lindsey O’Rourke writes.

  • Ukraine Offers Lessons for Russia’s 2024 Election Interference

    For all the media attention on the domestic political dimensions, the Kremlin’s interference in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections (and the 2018 midterms) included a significant focus on shaping U.S. policy toward Ukraine. Exerting influence on U.S. Ukraine policy Ukraine has long been a goal of Russian disinformation efforts, so American policymakers must prepare now for this influence effort to reemerge in 2024.

  • Can Russia Be Held Accountable for War Crimes in Ukraine?

    U.S. President Joe Biden has called Russian President Vladimir Putin a war criminal for the actions of Russian forces in Ukraine. Could Russian leaders be brought to justice under international law?

  • No Letup in Russian Influence Operations

    Moscow’s efforts to win over the world with its accounts of events in Ukraine are doing no better than Russia’s military forces inside Ukraine. More often than not, they are meeting with stiff resistance.

  • The Information War – How to Deal with Fake News and Misinformation

    Over the past few weeks, we have seen a growth in the use of the term ‘Information War’. The term, at first glance, would appear to be fairly innocuous: I mean, how hurtful or harmful could information actually be? However, as the conflict in Ukraine continues, we have seen the use of information take on a more powerful, weaponized status. We can help stop the spread of misinformation.

  • Domestic Extremists and Cryptocurrency

    Domestic extremists have been receiving a steady stream of cryptocurrency donations since 2016, and after the “Unite the Right” rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, in 2017, the extremists’ use of cryptocurrency has spiked, leading many financial services providers to “deplatform” certain extremist groups.

  • Israel-Iran Stealthy War Intensifies

    Last Sunday, Iran launched a missile attack which destroyed an Israeli intelligence facility located in Irbil, in the Kurdish autonomous zone in Iraq. The Iranian attack was in retaliation for a daring, and successful, mid-February Israeli attack, using six armed drones, on an Iranian drone production facility, in which hundreds of advanced Iranian drones were destroyed. Israel operates several intelligence and military bases in the Kurdish region and in Azerbaijan.

  • Secret Service's Research Highlights Mass Violence Motivated by Misogyny

    The U.S. Secret Service National Threat Assessment Center (NTAC) released a new analysis highlighting the role of misogyny in targeted violence.

  • Texas Cold Snap Highlights Need for Improved Power Systems

    The greatest demand for electricity in Texas is traditionally during the hottest days of the year, when air conditioners turn on full blast to beat the heat. But in February 2021, an unusually long spell of cold weather took the region by surprise. With extreme weather events rising in frequency, the need for a prepared modern energy grid grows.

  • Texas Warns Firms They Could Lose State Contracts for Divesting from Fossil Fuels

    A new law prohibits the state from contracting with or investing in companies that divest from oil, natural gas and coal companies.

  • A Solution to the Ukraine War Emerges

    Russian and Ukrainian sources said that both sides now agree that the likely solution to the Ukraine crisis is a neutral Ukraine with its own armed forces, but which is not a member of NATO. The examples of Austria and Sweden have been proposed as models. The status of the Crimean Peninsula and the Donbass region is still a sticking point, but both sides say that the atmosphere in the negotiations has become more positive and constructive.

  • Germany's Military Budget: Unanswered Questions

    Germany’s defense budget is not exactly small, and it has now been given a massive defense budget boost — but it is dogged by allegations of inefficiency. The parliamentary Bundeswehr commissioner’s report was not comforting.

  • U.S. Names Colombia a Major Non-NATO Ally

    The United States intends to name Colombia a “major non-NATO ally” — a particularly timely announcement for a South American nation seen as a bulwark against Venezuela, which is a Russian ally and foe of the United States.