• Trump Impeachment Trial: Decades of Research Show Language Can Incite Violence

    The claim that Donald Trump’s words led to the riotous insurrection on 6 January is complicated. Rather than wage direct war against sitting U.S. representatives, Trump is accused of using language to motivate others to do so. Some have countered that the connection between President Trump’s words and the violence of Jan. 6 is too tenuous, too abstract, too indirect to be considered viable. However, decades of research on social influence, persuasion and psychology show that the messages that people encounter heavily influence their decisions to engage in certain behaviors.

  • China’s Abuse of the Uighurs: Does the Genocide Label Fit?

    On his last full day in office, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo determined that the Chinese government is committing genocide against the Uighurs and other minority groups in the Xinjiang region. The Biden administration is reviewing the decision. But what does the genocide label mean, and what would using it entail for U.S. foreign policy?

  • Bracing for Trouble

    Security and police forces are bracing for violence by the more violent among Trump supporters and an assortment of other extremists, on two dates: The first is 9 February, which is the first day of Trump’s second Senate impeachment trial. The second is 4 March, which was the U.S. original inauguration date until it was moved to 20 January in 1937 (there were five exceptions: George Washington was sworn in on 20 April, and on four occasions, 4 March was a Sunday, so the inauguration was moved to 5 March). QAnon, still reeling from Trump’s loss on 3 November, has been feeding its gullible followers the fantasy that Trump has not really lost the election – but, rather, that he had won, but that he has chosen to be sworn in as president on 4 March, the original inauguration date.

  • U.S. Police, Security Forces Brace for Trump Impeachment Trial

    Security and police forces in and around Washington will be operating at what they describe as “a high-level of readiness” as the impeachment trial for former President Donald Trump gets underway next week, worried the event could serve as a flashpoint for American extremists still angry over the outcome of the presidential election. Officials have been hesitant to share specifics about the intelligence, some of which has been described as disturbing chatter on social media platforms.

  • Extremist-Related Shootouts with Police Soar in 2020

    During the 6 January 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol, violent Trump supporters—reinforced by a broad coalition of right-wing extremists—attacked police, who appeared to be caught unprepared for a violent encounter with a crowd which has been loudly and consistently supportive of law enforcement. In 2020, there were 16 incidents in which police and extremists exchanged gunfire, an increase from the 11-year average of nine per year.

  • Piling Up Incriminating Information about Trump’s Russian Connections

    Not all counterintelligence investigations lead to arrests, but many such investigations reveal weaknesses and vulnerabilities which may have escaped notice. John Sipher writes that a new book by Craig Unger, American Kompromat, serves that purpose. “By compiling decades of Trump’s seedy ties, disturbing and consistent patterns of behavior, and unexplained contacts with Russian officials and criminals, Unger makes a strong case that Trump is probably a compromised trusted contact of Kremlin interests.” Sipher adds that Trump’s election in 2016 “exposed a previously undetected flaw in our system of protecting national security secrets: A duly elected president cannot be denied a security clearance, yet the Republican Party nominated a candidate whose greed, lack of morals and relationship with criminal elements should have disqualified him for the lowest-level clearance, much less the highest office in the land.”

  • Donald Trump Spying Allegations: More Likely Useful Idiot than Putin’s Agent

    The question of Donald Trump’s relationship with the Kremlin has surfaced once again, this time in a new book by veteran U.S. journalist Craig Unger. The book, American Kompromat, claims that the former US commander-in-chief was cultivated as a Russian intelligence asset for more than four decades. Could it really be true that one of Washington’s bitterest adversaries would have a stooge at the very top of its ranks? To consider this question it’s important to understand the distinction between an asset and an agent (or spy). Simply put, an agent is a partner for life, whereas an asset is a friend with benefits. And, most likely, if Trump has been one of the two, it’s the latter.

  • Canada Designates “Neo-Fascist” Proud Boys as Terrorist Entity

    Canada became the first country Wednesday to formally designate the Proud Boys a terrorist entity, according to the nation’s public safety ministry. The ministry said in a statement the group was “a neo-fascist organization” that “played a pivotal role in the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol” in Washington.

  • North Korea Targeted Cybersecurity Researchers Using a Blend of Hacking and Espionage

    North Korean hackers have staged an audacious attack targeting cybersecurity researchers, many of whom work to counter hackers from places like North Korea, Russia, China and Iran. The attack involved sophisticated efforts to deceive specific people, which raises the level of social engineering, or phishing attacks, and enters the realm of spy tradecraft.

  • Iran Enriched “17 Kilograms” of 20 Percent Enriched Uranium, Exceeding Nuclear Pact’s Limits

    Iran says it has produced 17 kilograms of 20 percent-enriched uranium within a month, as Iranian officials continue to dismiss international calls for Tehran to return to full compliance with the 2015 nuclear agreement. About 250 kilograms of 20 percent-enriched uranium are needed to convert it into 15-25 kilograms of the 90 percent-enriched needed for a Hiroshima-size nuclear weapon.

  • Espionage Attempts Like the SolarWinds Hack Are Inevitable, So It’s Safer to Focus on Defense – Not Retaliation

    Since taking office, President Joe Biden has ordered a thorough intelligence review of Russian aggression around the world, which includes hacking, election interference, poisoning political opponents and posting bounties for killing U.S. soldiers. His administration faces pressure from members of Congress in both parties and former government officials to respond forcefully to the SolarWinds breach. But the U.S. government may not be able to stop future intrusions into American computer systems. Scholarship describes how difficult it can be to effectively deter cyberattacks or punish those responsible, and suggests that retaliation – in whatever form it might take – will almost certainly invite counterhacks from Russia, worsening tensions between the countries and potentially escalating into the offline world.

  • How Trump’s Focus on Antifa Distracted Attention from the Far-Right Threat

    In response to Donald Trump’s election-related insistence that the radical left endangered the country, federal law enforcement shifted resources last year from what experts agreed was a more ominous threat: the growing far-right extremism around the country. Trump’s efforts to focus his administration on the antifa movement and leftist groups did not stop the DOJ and the FBI from pursuing cases of right-wing extremism, but the effect of his direction was nonetheless substantial. The scale and intensity of the threat developing on the right became clear on 6 January.

  • Baltimore Aerial Investigations Associated with Small Improvements in Solving Crimes

    A preliminary report about an effort to use aerial surveillance to aid police investigations in Baltimore finds that the effort was associated with small increases in the rate at which police solved serious crimes, but an overall evaluation of the program will require a wider review of citywide police efforts, according to a new report.

  • Four Ways the Biden Administration Can Revamp Disaster Management

    In the United States, 2020 had more billion-dollar disasters than any other year in recorded history, even without accounting for the COVID-19pandemic. This is part of a growing trend of more powerful disasters, such as forest fires or hurricanes, across more susceptible areas. This vulnerability is becoming understood to include a combination of the built environment, governance, and underlying social vulnerability. Among federal agencies in the United States, disasters are managed by as many as 90 different programs across 20 agencies. These programs are an uneven patchwork, leaving significant gaps in some areas, and overlapping responsibilities and authorities in others.

  • Bold Action Can End Era of Pandemic Threats By 2030

    The Bipartisan Commission on Biodefense has called on the federal government to urgently implement the recommendations specified in its new report, The Apollo Program for Biodefense: Winning the Race Against Biological Threats. The report details an ambitious program to develop and deploy the technologies needed to defend against all biological threats, empower public health, and prevent pandemics.