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Can QAnon Survive Another “Great Disappointment” on March 4? History Suggests It Might
Thursday could be a big day. On March 4, Donald Trump will be triumphantly returned to power to help save the world from a shadowy syndicate of Satan-worshipping pedophiles – or at least that is what a small fraction of American citizens believe. But before you circle the date and dust off the MAGA hats, a note of caution: We have been here before. Adherents of the same conspiracy theory, QAnon, had previously marked Jan. 20, the day of Joe Biden’s inauguration, as the big day. It might be thought that enough failed predictions would eventually discredit a prophet, but apocalyptic movements rarely simply dissolve when prophecies are seen to fail. But these failures have often only strengthened movements, giving rise to new theories that attempt to explain the shortcomings of earlier ones.
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Germany’s AfD Party Placed under Surveillance as “Extremism Suspect”
Germany’s interior intelligence agency, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) has classified the entire Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party as an “extremism suspected case.” The two largest parties in Germany, Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democratic Party are members of the governing coalition, making the populist, far-right AfD the leader of the opposition in the Bundestag. The designation allows the BfV to use additional surveillance powers given to it by the Bundestag last year, including monitoring email communications and recruiting party members as informants.
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French Far-Right Militia Dissolved by Government Decree
The French government yesterday voted to dissolve a far-right militia called Génération Identitaire (GI). The ministry of the interior has already used dissolution decrees against three Islamist groups, and, in October 2020, it dissolved the Turkish ultranationalist group “Gray Wolves.” The moves, led by the hard-charging Minister of the Gerald Darmanin, are part of the Macron government’s decision to confront extremists more forcefully.
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Economics, National Security, and the Competition with China
The world has faced the financial crisis and the coronavirus epidemic, but now, George Magnus, writes, it has been presented with a third existential shock that is the defining drama of these early decades of the 21st century: a more truculent and assertive China. China, once viewed by liberal-leaning democracies simply as a formidable consumer and feisty competitor, has also grown and changed over the last decade to become an economic and national security adversary with which the United States has locked horns in ideological and strategic competition.
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FBI: No Evidence of Leftist Extremists Involved in 6 January Attack on Capitol
DBI director Christopher Wray told lawmakers today (Tuesday) that there wasn’t any evidence to suggest that left-wing extremists or “fake Trump supporters” were involved in the 6 January attack on the Capitol. The claims about fake Trump supporters, and similar conspiracy theories about how it was violent leftist extremists rather than Trump supporters who were behind the violence on 6 January, have been promoted by pro-Trump media outlets.
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U.S. Concludes Russian Agents Poisoned Navalny, Will Join EU Sanctions
Senior U.S. administration officials say Washington has concluded that Russian agents used a nerve agent to poison opposition leader Aleksei Navalny. The officials said the United States will mirror EU sanctions on seven senior Russian government officials.
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Hate Crimes Targeting Asian Americans Spiked by 150% in Major U.S. Cities
Hate-fueled attacks on Asian Americans spiked across major U.S. cities last year — in some cases by triple-digit percentages — even as overall hate crimes declined, newly analyzed police department statistics show. Moreover, the alarming trend has continued into this year, experts say.
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The Texas Blackouts Showed How Climate Extremes Threaten Energy Systems Across the U.S.
Pundits and politicians have been quick to point fingers over the debacle in Texas that left millions without power or clean water during February’s deep freeze. Many have blamed the state’s deregulated electricity market, arguing that Texas prioritized cheap power over reliability. But climate extremes are wreaking increasing havoc on energy systems across the U.S., regardless of local politics or the particulars of regional grids.
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U.S. Militias Want to “Blow Up” Capitol: Police Chief
The acting chief of the US Capitol police urged for security measures to remain in place amid ongoing threats by extremists. “Members of militia groups that were present on January 6 have stated their desires that they want to blow up the Capitol and kill as many members as possible with a direct nexus to the State of the Union,” Pittman told members of the House Appropriations Committee.
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U.S. Strikes Iran-Backed Militias Blamed for Rocket Attacks in Iraq
The United States launched air strikes in eastern Syria targeting facilities used by Iran-backed militias. The Pentagon said the strikes, the first military action undertaken by President Joe Biden’s administration since he was sworn into office last month, hit “multiple facilities” at a control point on the Syria-Iraq border used by several Iran-backed militias, including the Iraqi Shiite groups Kaitib Hizballah and Kaitib Sayyid al-Shuhada.
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SolarWinds Hack Bigger, More Dangerous than Previously Thought, Tech Execs Warn
Executives with technology companies impacted by the massive cybersecurity breach known as the SolarWinds hack are giving U.S. lawmakers more reason to worry, warning the intrusion is both bigger and more dangerous than first realized.
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The Last Time the Justice Department Prosecuted a Seditious Conspiracy Case
Lenawee County, Michigan, had an apocalyptic Christian nationalist militia problem about a decade ago. The group called itself the Hutaree, a name that members said meant “Christian Warriors,” though the FBI said it didn’t mean anything at all. The FBI had an informer inside the group, and nine of its members were charged with conspiracy, sedition, and various weapon charges. Judge Victoria Roberts acquitted the Hutaree members of the serious charges of conspiracy and sedition. Why should anyone care about the Hutaree now? Jacob Schulz writes that we should, “because one of those serious charges was seditious conspiracy under 18 U.S.C.§ 2384. It was the last time the Justice Department would use the statute until the present day.” It’s looking more and more like prosecutors might dust off the statute in response to the insurrection of Jan. 6. “The trial judge’s decision in the Hutaree case isn’t binding precedent. But the Hutaree are worth a second look.”
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Cyber Workforce Protecting U.S. National Security
The Defense Department’s cyber workforce is tasked with defending virtually every system that the department relies on to protect national security.
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Biden Orders Review to Bolster Supply Chain Resiliency
President Joe Biden signed an executive order on Wednesday to formally order a 100-day government review of global supply chains and potential U.S. vulnerabilities in key industries including computer chips, electric vehicle batteries, pharmaceuticals and critical minerals used in electronics. On top of the 100-day review of these four key industries, Biden’s order also directs yearlong reviews for six sectors: defense, public health, information technology, transportation, energy and food production.
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Iran Confirms End to Snap Inspections as U.S. Seeks to “Lengthen, Strengthen” Nuclear Deal
Iranian state television has confirmed that the country has ended its implementation of the Additional Protocol, which allows for so-called snap inspections of nuclear-related sites, signaling the further disintegration of atomic safeguards in place since a 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.
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More headlines
The long view
Factories First: Winning the Drone War Before It Starts
Wars are won by factories before they are won on the battlefield,Martin C. Feldmann writes, noting that the United States lacks the manufacturing depth for the coming drone age. Rectifying this situation “will take far more than procurement tweaks,” Feldmann writes. “It demands a national-level, wartime-scale industrial mobilization.”
No Nation Is an Island: The Dangers of Modern U.S. Isolationism
The resurgence of isolationist sentiment in American politics is understandable but misguided. While the desire to refocus on domestic renewal is justified, retreating from the world will not bring the security, prosperity, or sovereignty that its proponents promise. On the contrary, it invites instability, diminishes U.S. influence, and erodes the democratic order the U.S. helped forge.
Fragmented by Design: USAID’s Dismantling and the Future of American Foreign Aid
The Trump administration launched an aggressive restructuring of U.S. foreign aid, effectively dismantling the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The humanitarian and geopolitical fallout of the demise of USAID includes shuttered clinics, destroyed food aid, and China’s growing influence in the global south. This new era of American soft power will determine how, and whether, the U.S. continues to lead in global development.
Water Wars: A Historic Agreement Between Mexico and US Is Ramping Up Border Tension
By Natasha Lindstaedt
As climate change drives rising temperatures and changes in rainfall, Mexico and the US are in the middle of a conflict over water, putting an additional strain on their relationship. Partly due to constant droughts, Mexico has struggled to maintain its water deliveries for much of the last 25 years, deliveries to which it is obligated by a 1944 water-sharing agreement between the two countries.
How Disastrous Was the Trump-Putin Meeting?
In Alaska, Trump got played by Putin. Therefore, Steven Pifer writes, the European leaders and Zelensky have to “diplomatically offer suggestions to walk Trump back from a position that he does not appear to understand would be bad for Ukraine, bad for Europe, and bad for American interests. And they have to do so without setting off an explosion that could disrupt U.S.-Ukrainian and U.S.-European relations—all to the delight of Putin and the Kremlin.”
How Male Grievance Fuels Radicalization and Extremist Violence
By Haily Tran
Social extremism is evolving in reach and form. While traditional racial supremacy ideologies remain, contemporary movements are now often fueled by something more personal and emotionally resonant: male grievance.