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U.S. social media strategy can use Twitter more effectively to weaken ISIS influence
Opponents of ISIS and Syria are six times greater in number on Twitter than ISIS supporters, but those sympathetic to the group are more active on the social media platform, according to a new RAND Corporation study. The researchers, analyzing more than twenty-three million tweets posted in Arabic over a 10-month period, found that, on average, supporters of ISIS produce 50 percent more tweets than opponents on a typical day, although there is evidence that ISIS opponents are increasing their activity.
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The political role of drone strikes in U.S. grand strategy
Years of debate on the issue of U.S. drone strikes show that many Americans have reservations. People are concerned that drone strikes devalue non-American lives, dangerously expand executive power, and drive terrorism and anti-Americanism. The concerns Americans have about these kinds of drone attacks – apparently unilateral, apparently violating the norm of state sovereignty, and conducted without a formal justice process — reflect well on a public wondering what the U.S. role in the world should be. But assessing the value of drone strikes requires looking beyond the attacks themselves to first identify and prioritize U.S. interests and threats. Only in that context is it possible to decide whether one supports or opposes drone strikes for what they may gain the United States politically.
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Managing terrorism risk more complicated today
Managing terrorism risk today requires a combination of strategies and tactics that protect people, property, and finances. On the financial side, the choice is whether to retain or transfer the risk via insurance. But the changing pattern of terrorism risk has some companies questioning whether they are adequately insured for business interruption and related losses. And they wonder how to prepare for potential losses from cyber terrorism and other events.
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CENTCOM’s assessment of U.S. anti-ISIS efforts too rosy: Congressional panel
A congressional joint task force (JTF) investigating allegations of intelligence manipulation at U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) last week released an initial report detailing persistent problems in 2014 and 2015 with CENTCOM analysis of U.S. efforts to train the Iraqi Security Forces and combat ISIS in Iraq and Syria. The JTF found that intelligence products approved by senior CENTCOM leaders typically provided a more positive depiction of U.S. antiterrorism efforts than was warranted by facts on the ground and were consistently more positive than analysis produced by other elements of the intelligence community.
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The rise of a cyberterror community is on the horizon
A social psychologist who is also a cybersecurity experts says that the rise of a cyber terror community is on the horizon. The researcher believes that this new community may be the logical next step in the development of our digital world. “The magnitude of potential damage for a cyberattack is remarkable, and the number of targets for a cyber terrorist attack is amazingly large,” he said. “The chance of getting caught are very small, and some of the resources to complete the crime are very easy to obtain — not to mention the potential for getting away with it is very high.”
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Connecticut launches emergency alert mobile app for state residents
Connecticut governor Dannel P. Malloy last week announced the launch of a new emergency preparedness mobile application for Connecticut residents. The app provides information and alerts in emergency situation, and also helps residents prepare in advance of an emergency. The CT Prepares app, which can be downloaded to most smartphones, incorporates and integrates text messaging, e-mail, and social networking, allowing residents to communicate with family members during an emergency.
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North African Islamist terrorists dig up Nazi mines for use in IEDs
ISIS and its affiliate organization in North Africa have found a new source for munition materials: Digging up old landmines from the Second World War and using them to fashion IEDs for terrorist attacks. The retreating German forces under the command of Field Marshal Erwin Rommel buried about seventeen million landmines under the surface in western Egypt and north-east Libya.
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Hundreds of U.K. teenagers still want to fight in ISIS ranks in Syria
Kadiza Sultana, a 17-year old Briton who traveled to Syria in February 2015 to join ISIS, was killed two weeks ago by a Russian airstrike on Raqqa, the informal capital of ISIS. Still, experts say that hundreds of British teenage girls are keen on joining ISIS. This reality has raised questions about the effectiveness of the British government’s approach to counter-radicalism.
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Reducing terrorist recruitment by countering terrorist narratives
Recruiters for violent extremist groups, just like screenwriters and marketers, use storytelling techniques to craft their messages. Analyzing those narratives and producing counter-narratives may be one way to cut the success of terrorist recruitment, according to researchers. “No matter what the context is — whether it’s terrorism or health communication or organizational communication — the principles of persuasion all operate the same,” say a researcher.
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Togo organizing Israeli-African security and development summit
The West African nation of Togo is taking the lead in organizing an Israeli-African “security and development” summit, which it offered to host in its capital next year. Israel has a long history of sharing its economic and security expertise with countries on the continent, and Jerusalem hopes that increased ties with African nations will lead to a shift in their voting trends at the UN and other global for a. Israel’s relations with many African countries were disrupted by Israeli-Palestinian tensions, but African countries which had severed diplomatic relations with Israel in the early 1970s are now resuming relations. Last month, the Muslim-majority Republic of Guinea restored diplomatic ties with Israel after a 49-year break.
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DHS S&T awards $1.3 million to small businesses for cybersecurity R&D
DHS S&T has awarded $1.3 million to thirteen small businesses for the development of new cyber security technology. Each business was awarded approximately $100,000 in preliminary funding through the DHS S&T Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program. The SBIR proposal solicitation, released in December 2015, included four topics developed by Cyber Security Division program managers.
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ISIS ranks in Syria, Iraq “decimated,” with only 15,000 fighters left: U.S. commander
The number of ISIS fighters in Iraq and Syria has been substantially reduced by an effective U.S.-led military campaigns, leaving as few as 15,000 militants to fight, a senior U.S. commander said. Not only has the estimated number of ISIS fighters shrunk from earlier estimates of between 19,000 and 25,000, but the U.S. commander said that the quality of ISIS fighters has decreased. “The enemy is in retreat on all fronts,” Lieutenant General Sean MacFarland said.
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Patterns of ISIS-related terrorism, 2002-2015
Between 2002 and 2015, more than 4,900 terrorist attacks were carried out by groups or organizations affiliated with ISIS. These attacks caused more than 33,000 deaths and 41,000 injuries. These attacks represented 13 percent of all terrorist attacks worldwide and, 26 percent of all deaths, and 28 percent of all injuries due to terrorism during the same time period.
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Germany to search refugees' phones to establish identity, spot suspicious connections
German interior minister Thomas de Maizière will next week announce a new German anti-terror steps, which, among other things, will require refugees and asylum-seekers arriving in Germany without a passport to surrender their smartphones – and all the passwords and security pin numbers associated with the phones – so German security agencies could check the owners’ social media accounts. The security services in Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and the Netherlands already routinely examine refugees’ mobile phones to establish a refugee’s identity.
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Sophisticated espionage platform covertly extracts encrypted government communications
Kaspersky Lab announced the other day that its researchers have discovered what they described as a “nation-state threat actor” — named ProjectSauron — who was targeting state organizations. “The cost, complexity, persistence, and ultimate goal of the operation, stealing confidential and secret information from state-sensitive organizations, suggest the involvement or support of a nation state,” Kaspersky Lab says. ProjectSauron “gives the impression of being an experienced and traditional actor who has put considerable effort into learning from other extremely advanced actors,” and “ adopting some of their most innovative techniques and improving on their tactics in order to remain undiscovered.”
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More headlines
The long view
Factories First: Winning the Drone War Before It Starts
Wars are won by factories before they are won on the battlefield,Martin C. Feldmann writes, noting that the United States lacks the manufacturing depth for the coming drone age. Rectifying this situation “will take far more than procurement tweaks,” Feldmann writes. “It demands a national-level, wartime-scale industrial mobilization.”
No Nation Is an Island: The Dangers of Modern U.S. Isolationism
The resurgence of isolationist sentiment in American politics is understandable but misguided. While the desire to refocus on domestic renewal is justified, retreating from the world will not bring the security, prosperity, or sovereignty that its proponents promise. On the contrary, it invites instability, diminishes U.S. influence, and erodes the democratic order the U.S. helped forge.
Fragmented by Design: USAID’s Dismantling and the Future of American Foreign Aid
The Trump administration launched an aggressive restructuring of U.S. foreign aid, effectively dismantling the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The humanitarian and geopolitical fallout of the demise of USAID includes shuttered clinics, destroyed food aid, and China’s growing influence in the global south. This new era of American soft power will determine how, and whether, the U.S. continues to lead in global development.
Water Wars: A Historic Agreement Between Mexico and US Is Ramping Up Border Tension
As climate change drives rising temperatures and changes in rainfall, Mexico and the US are in the middle of a conflict over water, putting an additional strain on their relationship. Partly due to constant droughts, Mexico has struggled to maintain its water deliveries for much of the last 25 years, deliveries to which it is obligated by a 1944 water-sharing agreement between the two countries.
How Disastrous Was the Trump-Putin Meeting?
In Alaska, Trump got played by Putin. Therefore, Steven Pifer writes, the European leaders and Zelensky have to “diplomatically offer suggestions to walk Trump back from a position that he does not appear to understand would be bad for Ukraine, bad for Europe, and bad for American interests. And they have to do so without setting off an explosion that could disrupt U.S.-Ukrainian and U.S.-European relations—all to the delight of Putin and the Kremlin.”
How Male Grievance Fuels Radicalization and Extremist Violence
Social extremism is evolving in reach and form. While traditional racial supremacy ideologies remain, contemporary movements are now often fueled by something more personal and emotionally resonant: male grievance.