• Coronavirus: The U.K. Could Be over the Peak

    While most British people support the lockdown, they will still be keen to know when the epidemic has reached its peak. Well, they don’t need to wait any longer – the answer is in. Data suggests that the UK is most likely over the peak. Christian Yates writes in The Conversation that data released by NHS England, in which deaths are aggregated by the date of death rather than the date of reporting, shows a clear decline in recent days. “While the figures are subject to constant revision, the numbers are starting to give us a coherent picture of the shape of the epidemic,” he writes. “Knowing that we have passed the peak is important because it shows that we can, with great effort and sacrifice, bring this disease under control.” He notes that the numbers are not always clear, for several reasons: there are large numbers of different sources for the figures in the U.K.– the different branches of the NHS, government websites and the Office for National Statistics – all of whose figures differ slightly. A more obfuscating factor is the lag between people dying and their deaths being reported. In rare instances, this can be as long as a month, although the vast majority of deaths make their way into the government’s daily totals within a week. And even when these daily numbers are reported by date of death (as in the NHS numbers in the top figure), there are reasons to doubt that they are a true reflection of the number of deaths. “Still, being over the peak is indisputably positive news,” he notes. “Although not cause for celebration, reaching the plateau is perhaps cause for a somber degree of relief.”

  • Government tells U.K. Businesses: Time to Get Back to Work

    Businesses are being discreetly advised by ministers on how to get people back to work in the coming days and weeks amid growing concerns over the economic impact of the lockdown.  Harry Yorke, Gordon Rayner, and Hayley Dixon write in The Telegraph that the government believes there is plenty of room within the existing restrictions for more people to be working, and is now actively encouraging firms to reopen. British Steel, house builder Persimmon and McDonalds are among the latest in a growing number of firms announcing that they are reopening despite the lockdown. It came as the chief medical officer said there was now “scope for maneuver” to ease some restrictions in the near future because the transmission rate of the virus is now within a manageable range. Scientific advisers have told ministers that Britain should be in a position to start lifting the lockdown by mid-May, with a team of experts compiling a detailed report on the issue for Boris Johnson when he returns to work next week. Ministers are already making plans for garden centers, car dealerships and other retailers where social distancing can be maintained, to reopen during the first phase of a gradual exit from lockdown. New data shows that increasing numbers of people are venturing out to shops, parks and workplaces as the nation grows tired of staying at home.

  • Europeans Start Feeling a Way Out of Coronavirus Lockdowns

    European governments are rolling out plans outlining how they will start to cautiously unlock their countries and fire up their economies, but the lifting of lockdowns is being complicated by a string of studies suggesting that even in cities and regions hit hard by the coronavirus, only a small fraction of the population has contracted the infection. That presents governments with exactly the same dilemma they faced when the virus first appeared: Lock down and wreck the economy to save lives and prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed with the sick, or, allow the virus to do its worst and watch health care systems buckle and the death toll mount. There had been hope that sizable numbers — many more than confirmed cases — had contracted the virus, protecting them with some immunity, even if temporary, from reinfection. That would help ease the complications of gradually lifting restrictions.

  • Ministers Can’t Keep Hiding Behind the Science

    It’s dishonest and cowardly to keep pretending that how and when the lockdown is lifted isn’t a political judgment call. Matthew Parris writes that the political leaders of the country – the U.K. in his case, but any country – must have the courage to share with the public the political — political, not medical — choices they must make, and take ownership “of the trade-offs that only politics can settle: trade-offs between deaths caused by one disease and deaths caused by others less immediately in the public eye; between the longevity of the elderly and the education of the young; between mortality in April 2020 and debt that will scar a whole generation; between loss of life and loss of livelihood.” Whichever side you come down on in this trade-off, Parris write. somebody’s got to say there’s a trade-off, and it isn’t ‘the’ science. “It is for the ministers who will make the judgment to be upfront with the public about the human cost. They can ‘follow’ the science, cite the science, be guided by the science, but in the end the science will lead them to a point where paths diverge.”

  • COVID-19 Disruptions: Understanding Food Security Implications

    According to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the COVID-19 pandemic is impacting the world’s food systems and disrupting regional agricultural trade and value chains. The FAO has warned that food shortages are a real risk in the coming months. This global health crisis will test our food and trade systems in ways never experienced before.

  • Coronavirus and Its Social Effects Fueling Extremist Violence, Says Government Report

    The coronavirus pandemic and its social repercussions are fueling violence by both frustrated individuals and domestic terrorists, according to a new intelligence report by the Department of Homeland Security. Social distancing has meant the cancelation of mass gathering events that are historically appealing targets for both international and domestic terrorists, the report adds, but “the pandemic has created a new source of anger and frustration for some individuals. As a result, violent extremist plots will likely involve individuals seeking targets symbolic to their personal grievances.”

  • France, Europe Mull Controversial Coronavirus Tracing Apps

    France’s parliament votes next week on plans to use a controversial tracing app to help fight the coronavirus, as the country eyes easing its lockdown next month. Lisa Bryant writes in VOA News that French Digital Affairs Minister Cedric O says the downloadable app would notify smartphone users when they cross people with COVID-19, helping authorities track and reduce the spread of the pandemic. In a video on the ruling party’s Facebook page, O said the so-called “Stop COVID” app will fully respect people’s liberties, and will be completely voluntary and anonymous. It also will be temporary — lasting only as long as the pandemic, he added. The government wants to launch the app on May 11, the date it has set to begin easing a two-month lockdown in the country. It initially announced a parliamentary debate on the technology, but that’s been changed to a vote, after major pushback from lawmakers.

  • WHO Warns of Long Road Ahead with COVID-19

    The global COVID-19 total yesterday reached 2,623,231 cases from 185 countries, along with 182,359 deaths. At a media telebriefing yesterday, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreysus, PhD, the WHO’s director-general, said most of the epidemics in Western Europe have stabilized or are declining. However, there are worrying upward trends in Africa, Central and South America, and Eastern Europe, though numbers are still relatively low.

  • Study Calls into Question Use of Malaria Drug for COVID-19

    A retrospective study of patients with COVID-19 found no evidence that the anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine, either with or without the antibiotic azithromycin, reduced mortality or the need for mechanical ventilation. Researchers also found that hydroxychloroquine alone was associated with increased mortality. Early excitement about the combination was based on a small French study, and President Donald Trump soon began touting the combination as a potential “game changer,” but the findings from the study, which is the largest to date to report on outcomes from treating COVID-19 patients with the anti-malaria drug and uses a database that has been used for many different studies, suggest that the hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin combination may not be as promising for treating COVID-19 as some have hoped. 

  • NIST Tool Could Help Hospitals Repurpose Rooms for Disinfecting N95 Masks

    In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, hospitals across the United States are disinfecting N95 masks by placing them in repurposed rooms or shipping containers injected with a disinfectant known as vaporized hydrogen peroxide, or VHP. A new tool from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) can help hospitals and medical professionals determine which rooms should be used to disinfect N95 masks. The tool estimates the amount of VHP masks would receive and suggests that larger rooms containing fewer objects, with less-reactive surfaces and slower ventilation, maintain VHP concentration the best.   

  • Brazil: Jair Bolsonaro’s Strategy of Chaos Hinders Coronavirus Response

    Brazil faces a tremendous uphill struggle in its response to COVID-19, the disease associated with the new coronavirus. Already eroded by years of budget cuts, the country’s public health system, the Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS), has been further undermined by the president, Jair Bolsonaro. Last week he participated in a demonstration during which opposition to lockdown measures was combined with calls for a military intervention to shut down Brazil’s congress and supreme court. Since coming to power in January 2019, Bolsonaro has led an attack on science and professional expertise – cutting research funds, substituting managers of research institutes with inexperienced political appointees, and publicly intimidating scientists. COVID-19 is a new phase of this ongoing war.

  • How South Korea Flattened the Coronavirus Curve with Technology

    As countries around the world consider how best to reopen their countries, it’s worth considering how South Korea has been able to “flatten the curve” and even hold parliamentary elections without resorting to lockdowns. Michael Ahn writes in The Conversation that after seeing an initial spike in COVID-19 infections in February, South Korea implemented several measures to bring the disease’s spread under control, a progression he has followed as a researcher on public policy. South Korea was able to lower the number of new infections from 851 on March 3 to 22 infections as of 17 April and the mortality rate from COVID-19 hovers around 2 percent. Several measures contribute to Korea’s success, but two measures were critical in the country’s ability to flatten the curve: extensive testing for the disease and a national system for promptly and effectively tracking people infected with COVID-19.

  • The Problem of Modeling

    The lessons starting to emerge from the coronavirus crisis are predominantly not epidemiological but highly general aspects of public policy, Paul Collier writes: the over-reliance on expert modelling and the mismanagement of public services. “The current epidemic is a classic application of what economists call ‘radical uncertainty’: in a world that has inevitably become too complex to be adequately captured in models, a world of both ‘known unknowns’ and ‘unknown unknowns,’ the most sensible response to the question ‘what should we do?’ is ‘I don’t know’,” he argues.

  • One Simple Number Can Solve Boris's Grimly Complex Lockdown Dilemma

    When Boris Johnson returns to work, he will have to grapple with a difficult decision. The British economy is on the brink, and must be revived, but the PM cannot risk the dreaded second coronavirus peak. Leaders of countries must make tough decisions in difficult situations, and Allister Heath writes that Boris’s decision ranks below the Cuban missile crisis matrix, of course, but above Tony Blair’s Iraq War calculations or Margaret Thatcher’s Falklands choices. “The Prime Minister faces a series of horrible moral and practical dilemmas best understood through elementary mathematics. The key concept is the R0 (pronounced R-nought): If the R0 is under 1, every victim infects fewer than one other person each, so the virus remains contained; if it is above 1, they each pass the virus to more than one other, contaminating swathes of the population quickly.”

  • Trump Signs Executive Order Restricting Immigration

    U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday signed an executive order restricting immigration for a period of 60 days because of the coronavirus pandemic. The measure does not apply to any nonimmigrant visas, including those allowing temporary workers into the country for seasonal jobs in agriculture. It also exempts health professionals and wealthy investors seeking to move to the country. It does halt permanent resident visas (known as green cards) for parents of U.S. citizens and permanent residents, but not spouses. The order also excludes from suspension the cases of those who are in the country seeking to change their immigration status.