• Will Coronavirus Change Europe Permanently?

    As scary, surreal and disruptive as it is now, the long-term political and economic consequences of the biggest public health challenge the continent has faced since the 1918 Spanish flu are likely to be huge. Aside from quarantining, the past also has some possible lessons for Europe about how infectious diseases can leave a long-term imprint, say historians. They say plagues and pestilence have reshaped countries before, changing politics, contributing to instability, retarding economic development and altering social relations.

  • COVID-19 Diagnostic Based on MIT Technology Might Be Tested on Patient Samples Soon

    As more COVID-19 cases appear in the United States and around the world, the need for fast, easy-to-use diagnostic tests is becoming ever more pressing. A startup company spun out from MIT is now working on a paper-based test that can deliver results in under half an hour, based on technology developed at MIT’s Institute for Medical Engineering and Science (IMES). A variety of MIT research projects could aid efforts to detect and prevent the spread of coronavirus.

  • Oxford Scientists Develop Rapid Testing Technology for COVID-19

    Oxford University scientists have developed a rapid testing technology for the novel corona virus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19). The new test is much faster and does not need a complicated instrument. Previous viral RNA tests took 1.5 to 2 hours to give a result. The research team has developed a new test, based on a technique which is capable of giving results in just half an hour – over three times faster than the current method.

  • Bioterrorists, Using Genetic Editing, Could Kill More than 30 Million People: Bill Gates

    A bioterrorist attack could kill thirty million people — and such an attack is becoming more likely because it has become much easier to create – or “design” — deadly pathogens and spread them. Two years ago Bill Gates, Microsoft founder, spoke in London, saying that an outbreak of a lethal respiratory virus like smallpox would be more dangerous than even a nuclear attack. Anyone can now purchase chemistry kits which allow genetic editing, and do so online for under $150.

  • Trump Admits COVID-19 Severity as White House Tightens Guidance

    In a coronavirus briefing yesterday at the White House President Trump warned that the COVID-19 outbreak could last until July or August, and said the virus was “really bad,” a noted change in tone from the president’s earlier remarks on the virus. The White House also issued new guidelines, titled “15 Days to Slow the Spread,” meant to promote social distancing in America.

  • Editor’s note: U.K.’s Course Correction

    Britain’s initial response to the COVID-19 outbreak – opting for the more gradual “mitigation” over the more draconian “suppression” — has been criticized by some experts as an unnecessarily risky gamble (see, for example, Helen Jenkins, “The British Government’s Response to the Coronavirus Has Been a Disaster: It Dropped a Plan for ‘Herd Immunity,’ but the United Kingdom Is Still Moving Way Too Slowly,” Washington Post, 16 March 2020; and William Hanage, “I’m an Epidemiologist. When I Heard about Britain’s ‘Herd Immunity’ Coronavirus Plan, I Thought It Was Satire: Vulnerable People Should Not Be Exposed to Covid-19 Right Now in the Service of a Hypothetical Future,” Guardian, 15 March 2020).

    Yesterday, Monday 16 March, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that the United Kingdom was changing direction, replacing the mitigation approach with a version of suppression, which brings the United Kingdom closer to the policies adopted by most other countries (President Emmanuel Macron of France on Monday announced a suppression policy which is  more sweeping that that announced by Johnson).

    Tom Solomon (“Coronavirus: The U.K. Approach Explained,” HSNW, 17 March 2020) explains the mitigation approach initially adopted by the United Kingdom. Another article (“From Mitigation to Suppression: U.K. Gov Changes Its COVID-19 Response,” HSNW, 17 March 2020) explains the reasons behind the U.K. government’s course correction.

  • From Mitigation to Suppression: U.K. Gov Changes Its COVID-19 Response

    The British government on Monday, 16 March, announced that it was changing direction in its response to the COVID-19 outbreak. The technical terms for the change in direction: The British government is moving away from “mitigation” toward “suppression.” The change of course brings the U.K. closer to policies adopted by other countries around the world.

  • Coronavirus: The U.K. Approach Explained

    Faced with the coronavirus epidemic, China and Italy have imposed draconian measures which, in China at least, now seem to be having an effect. These measures, however, have enormous economic and social costs. The U.K. has, so far at least, adopted a different approach: When a virus passes through most of the population, infected individuals develop antibodies to the infection, and the population as a whole thus acquires herd immunity. This means that enough people have been infected and developed an immune response so that there is nowhere left for the virus to go, and circulation stops. In theory, a prolonged lockdown, by slowing virus circulation, could mean a population never gets herd immunity, and so the lockdown has to continue indefinitely, or until a vaccine is developed. Health experts say that between 30 percent and 80 percent of the U.K. population will eventually get infected – but that 99 percent of them will recover completely after experiencing only slight discomfort, with only about 1 percent, or 53,000 people (in the event of 80 percent infection) requiring some medical attention. The reward of this approach: less economic and social disruption, and herd immunity which buys scientists more time to develop a vaccine and treatments.

  • Cyberexperts Step in As Criminals Seek to Exploit Coronavirus Fears

    Experts from the National Cyber Security Center have revealed a range of attacks being perpetrated online as cyber criminals seek to exploit COVID-19. Techniques seen since the start of the year include bogus emails with links claiming to have important updates, which once clicked on lead to devices being infected.

  • U.S. Takes More Big Pandemic Response Steps; Europe COVID-19 Cases Soar

    The number of COVID-19 cases in other parts of the world yesterday topped China’s total, fueled by surges in Europe—especially in Italy—and Iran, plus outbreaks picking up steam in other nations, including the United States, where New York City yesterday shuttered its schools and the Federal Reserve slashed its interest rate again. As testing capacity slowly ramps up in the United States, about 600 more cases were reported, putting the nation’s total at 3,244, according to the Johns Hopkins tracker. So far, West Virginia is the only state that hasn’t confirmed any cases.

  • Estimates of COVID-19's Fatality Rate Might Change. And Then Change Again.

    With infections of the new coronavirus confirmed now in 114 countries or regions, people around the world are following the daily tally of COVID-19 cases, wondering exactly how lethal this new disease is. The truth is, it’s hard to know. Early in an outbreak, even good estimates of the CFR can be too high—or too low.

  • COVID-19 Virus Isolated: Better Testing, Treatments, Vaccines Near

    Canadian researchers have isolated SARS-CoV-2 (coronavirus 2), the agent responsible for the ongoing outbreak of COVID-19, bringing the world closer to developing better diagnostic testing, treatments, and vaccines, and gaining a better understanding of SARS-CoV-2 biology, evolution, and clinical shedding. Researchers in North Carolina said Thursday that they produced a Virus-Like Particle (VLP) of the novel coronavirus, marking the first step in Covid-19 vaccine development.

  • R0: How Scientists Quantify the Intensity of an Outbreak Like Coronavirus and Its Pandemic Potential

    “R0,” pronounced “R naught,” represents an important concept in epidemiology and is a crucial part of public health planning during an outbreak, like the current coronavirus pandemic that’s spread globally since it was first identified in China. Scientists use R0 – the reproduction number – to describe the intensity of an infectious disease outbreak. R0 estimates have been an important part of characterizing pandemics or large publicized outbreaks, including the 2003 SARS pandemic, the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, and the 2014 Ebola epidemic in West Africa. It’s something epidemiologists are racing to nail down about SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.

  • America Is Acting Like a Failed State

    A global pandemic is a test — a mandatory exam — in national competence, Derek Thompson writes. It is a test for individuals, companies, and institutions. “And it is, above all, a test for the state. Only the national government can oversee the response to a national outbreak by coordinating research on the nature of the disease.” He adds: “In a country where many individuals, companies, institutions, and local governments are making hard decisions for the good of the nation, the most important actor of them all—the Trump administration—has been a shambolic bonanza of incompetence.”

  • The Four Key Reasons the U.S. Is So Behind on Coronavirus Testing

    The COVID-19 outbreak has been a confusing time for Americans, but one thing has been glaringly clear: The U.S. is way behind when it comes to testing people for the coronavirus. Testing is essential for identifying people who have been infected and for understanding the true scope of the outbreak. Yet, among the numerous failures of the Trump administration to deal effectively with the COVID-19 outbreak, the lack of testing equipment stands out. Olga Khazan writes that bureaucracy, equipment shortages, an unwillingness to share, and failed leadership doomed the American response to COVID-19.