• New Method Helps Predict the Spread of Armed Conflicts

    Around the world, political violence increased by 27 percent last year, affecting 1.7 billion people. Some armed conflicts occur between states, but there are many more that take place within the borders of a single state. To better understand how violent events spread, a new statistical model identifies links between battles in Africa, but the model can be applied to other armed conflicts.

  • The Niger Coup Could Threaten the Entire Sahel

    The coup in Niger, once seen as the cornerstone of U.S. counterterrorism efforts in West Africa, now threatens wider regional instability and could potentially open the door to further Russian influence.

  • How Might an ECOWAS Military Intervention in Niger Unfold?

    West Africa’s defense chiefs were wrapping up a meeting in Nigeria’s capital Abuja on Thursday where they discussed the possibility of a military intervention if diplomatic efforts fail to reinstate Niger’s ousted president, Mohamed Bazoum. How likely is West Africa regional bloc ECOWAS to use force to restore Niger’s democracy and what are its chances of success?

  • The Promise—and Pitfalls—of Researching Extremism Online

    While online spaces are key enablers for extremist movements, social media research hasn’t provided many answers to fundamental questions. How big of a problem is extremism, in the United States or around the world? Is it getting worse? Are social media platforms responsible, or did the internet simply reveal existing trends? Why do some people become violent?

  • Six Things to Watch Following Meta's Threads Launch

    Meta’s ‘Twitter killer,’ Threads, launched on July 6 to media fanfare. With another already politically charged U.S. election on the horizon, online hate and harassment at record highs, and a rise in antisemitism and extremist incidents both on- and offline, a new social media product of this scale will present serious challenges.

  • Which People Are Most Likely to Hold Antisemitic Views?

    People who believe in conspiracy theories are more likely to have antisemitic opinions than non-believers, new research shows. Researchers also found antisemitic views to be more prevalent among people who consider it justifiable to take extreme authoritarian action against political opponents, and people who want to overthrow social order.

  • Our Biggest Errors in Afghanistan and What We Should Learn from Them

    However dramatic it appeared, the collapse of the Afghan government and military was not surprising. The seeds of defeat were planted long before President Joe Biden ordered the withdrawal. The American project was not based in a clear understanding of the realities of Afghanistan. Well-meaning Americans believed that they could persuade, cajole, or force a project that much of the population did not actively embrace or participate in. A chain of discrete policy errors flowed from this basic failure to adequately understand the country.

  • Far-Right Populism: Why Is It So Popular in Germany?

    German politicians and media are once again fretting about the rise of far-right populism in the country, after two local runoff votes in eastern Germany were won by the Alternative for Germany (AfD), the country’s most successful far-right party since World War II.

  • Significant Intelligence Failures by FBI, DHS in Lead-Up to January 6th Capitol Attack

    A Senate panel released a new report detailing the results of an investigation examining intelligence failures by the FBI and DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis (I&A) in the lead-up to the attack on the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021. The investigation found that intelligence failures and operational missteps by the FBI and DHS I&A contributed to the security planning failures that left frontline officers unprepared for the violent mob that breached the Capitol and disrupted the peaceful transfer of power.

  • Evaluation Approaches for the Protection of Venues and Public Spaces from Terrorism

    In recent years, governments across the world have included legislation and published guidance material on how to mitigate the impact of terrorism on venues and public spaces. Known as Protective Security this pillar of counterterrorism comprises physical security, personnel security, and cyber security.

  • Has Indonesia’s Deradicalization Program Done Enough to Combat Terrorism?

    As anticipated for several years, an increasing number of Indonesian prisoners convicted of terrorism-related offences are now completing their prison terms. For Indonesian authorities, this represents a particularly prickly policy challenge. At the center of this challenge is the need for a greater understanding of the efficiency and effectiveness of Indonesia’s deradicalization program and post-sentence risk assessments. The success of these programs will determine the future security of Southeast Asia.

  • Islamic State Affiliates Pooling Resources, Growing Capabilities: U.S.

    U.S. officials tasked with tracking Islamic State are seeing worrisome signs that the terror group’s core leadership is strengthening control over its global network of affiliates despite a series of key losses. Specifically, the United States is raising concerns about the group’s General Directorate of Provinces, a series of nine regional offices set up over the past several years to sustain the group’s reputation and global capabilities.

  • American Extremists Serving as “Sources of Inspiration,” Says U.S. Counterterror Official

    There is a sense among senior U.S. counterterrorism officials that the actions of a handful of Americans are helping to drive the growth of racist and far-right extremist groups around the world. Specifically, these officials point to mass shootings and other high-profile attacks in the United States, which have helped to turn the perpetrators into martyrs for like-minded groups and individuals.

  • Four More Oath Keepers Sentenced for Seditious Conspiracy

    Four members of the Oath Keepers were sentenced last week on seditious conspiracy and other charges for crimes related to the breach of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. The four defendants were found guilty of seditious conspiracy, conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, obstruction of an official proceeding and conspiracy to prevent Members of Congress from discharging their official duties.

  • Support for Extremism Among U.S. Military Veterans Is Similar to Public at Large

    Support among military veterans for extremist groups and extremist ideals appears similar to or less than levels seen among the U.S. public in general, despite fears that it could be higher, according to a new RAND report. The U.S. military and veteran service organizations should continue to explore what drives some active-duty personnel and veterans to endorse extremist beliefs and join extremist causes.