MH17Forensic technology could help U.S. prove case against Russia, Ukrainian separatists

Published 23 July 2014

Over the weekend, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry appeared on several media outlets to make a case against Russia for the country’s support of pro-Russian separatists responsible for the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17. The United States is confident that rebels attacked the airplane with an SA-11 Gadfly 9K37M1 Buk-1M fired missile. For the United States to prove its allegations against Russia and the Ukrainian separatists, Western authorities must first gain full access to the crash site, utilize an arsenal of forensic investigative technology, then gather eye witness accounts. Once the United States can prove its allegations, European partners can then be persuaded to impose tougher sanctions on Russia.

Forensic analysts at wreckage // Source: menanews.org

Over the weekend, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry appeared on several media outlets to make a case against Russia for the country’s support of pro-Russian separatists responsible for the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17. The United States is confident that rebels attacked the airplane with an SA-11 Gadfly 9K37M1 Buk-1M fired missile. A dispatch from the U.S. embassy in Ukraine indicates that the weapon was provided by Russia. Evidence suggests that the rebel forces mistook the commercial airliner for a Ukrainian military transport vehicle.

Pro-Russian forces, however, are claiming that the Ukrainian government deliberately shot down the plane.

For the United States to provet its allegations against Russia and the Ukrainian separatists, Western authorities must first gain full access to the crash site, utilize an arsenal of forensic investigative technology, then gather eye witness accounts. Once the United States can prove its allegations, European partners can then be persuaded to impose tougher sanctions on Russia.

Four percent of Russia’s trade is with the United States; 50 percent of their engagement is with Europe,” Kerry told Fox News. According to Defense One, the threat of harsher sanctions by European trade partners might force Russia to cease its support of separatists in Ukraine, which could then give the Ukrainian government an opening to gain control of its territory.

For the United States to further its argument charging Russia for supporting Ukrainian rebel forces, infrared satellite imagery could be a key tool. “We know with a certainty that we saw the launch from this area…we know that it occurred at this very moment that this aircraft disappeared from the radar screen” said Kerry on Sunday. The National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) and the Air Force Space Command operate a number of infrared satellites, such as the Space Based Infrared System (SBIRS). Infrared satellite imagery could confirm that a missile did launch from the contested area, but the United States faces skepticism from European partners since similar technology was used to make the case for war against Saddam Hussein in 2003.

Another tool to help the United States make its case against Russia is having investigators access the crash site to collect samples from debris. Rebel forces have already made it difficult for investigators from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) to collect evidence from the crash. Some aspects of the crash site have already been compromised, Kerry said. “We understand airplane parts have been removed.” If the Obama administration is correct in its allegations against Russia and the Ukrainian rebels, the distribution of debris, once fully recorded, would confirm a violent sudden explosion possibly from a missile strike, as opposed to a long trail of parts indicating a slow break up of the plane due to pilot error or mechanical failure.

To advance its case further, U.S. officials must present to European partners evidence from the flight’s black boxes which, according to the Chicago Tribune, have been transferred to the Netherlands. While the black boxes could provide information that would rule out pilot error or mechanical malfunction as causes of the crash, authorities are not likely to retrieve much new information.

The State Department has not released information on whether officials are working to get testimonies from members of the rebel forces, but such information could ultimately help the United States make its case against Russia. Moments after the explosion of flight MH17, former Russian military officer Igor Strelkov, the self-declared Minister of Defense of the Donetsk People’s Republic, posted on VK.com, a Russian social media network, messages boasting that his troops scored a major hit, stating, “we warned you — do not fly in our sky.” This posting, and several others published on social media sites, have been removed.

One post in particular, from the Donetsk Republic Twitter feed @dnrpress, acknowledged that “self-propelled Buk surface-to-air missile systems have been seized by the DNR from (Ukrainian) surface-to-air missile regiment A1402,” according to Agence France-Presse. The post suggests that not only did the separatists have the means to launch the attack, but that they did not acquire the missile launcher from Russia, as the United States claims. The U.S. task is thus to present the evidence to prove otherwise.

There are no signs that Russia will admit to supplying a missile launcher to the separatists, but technology and proper investigation could help the United States convince its allies to join the efforts to hold Russia accountable for the fate of 298 victims.