Natural disastersGrowing number of Hurricane Sandy-like storm surges in future

Published 11 October 2016

In the wake of historic destruction wrought by Hurricane Sandy in 2012, residents of New York and other coastal cities were left wondering whether Sandy-scale storm floods are the new normal. Now, researchers have developed a computer simulation that estimates that storm-related flooding on the New York City coastline similar in scale to those seen during Sandy are likely to become more common in coming decades. The worst-case scenario has the frequency increasing by seventeen times by the year 2100.

In the wake of historic destruction wrought by Hurricane Sandy in 2012, residents of New York and other coastal cities were left wondering whether Sandy-scale storm floods are the new normal. 

Now, researchers from Princeton and Rutgers universities and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution have developed a computer simulation that estimates that storm-related flooding on the New York City coastline similar in scale to those seen during Sandy are likely to become more common in coming decades. The worst-case scenario has the frequency increasing by seventeen times by the year 2100, according to predictions published10 October in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Princeton University says that beyond this particular prediction, the new model provides an important new tool that can predict, more accurately than previously possible, the kinds of storm floods that will threaten coastal cities over the next century. The new simulation promises to provide a picture of long-term coastal flood risk by accounting for both sea-level rise and varying storm activity due to climate change. Scientists call flooding associated with coastal storms “surge floods,” referring the rise of coastal water due to storm surge (produced by a storm’s pressure and wind forces) and sea-level rise.

“There have been storms in the past that were probably as big as Sandy, such as in 1821, but you would be worried if these events become more frequent,” said Ning Lin, lead author and assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering.

“Sandy was a wake-up call, and New York has been starting to do things, such as coastal defences and some mitigation. Many other places may not even realize the risk, which is worrisome.”

To effectively prepare for future hurricanes, we need to know what coastal cities will be facing in the coming decades, but past models have not accounted for all of the significant dynamic factors involved in predicting surge floods,” said Lin. “You need numbers to plan, and this analysis puts sea-level rise and storm surge climatology together on a quantitative basis.”

“Things have already changed around us, which requires a new paradigm in terms of how we manage our national parks,” said Jake Weltzin, study co-author and ecologist at the U.S. Geological Survey.